MLB Game by Game Breakdown 9/27/18

With just four games left in the MLB season we have a few times such as the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies, and A’s still trying to make moves for the playoffs every one of these last four games are important. Only of these teams play tonight and that would be the Cubs.

The first game on our list is Houston @ Baltimore

Houston @ Baltimore:

Gerrit Cole faces off with David Hess in a game that could have some weather so keep an eye on this game. Cole is my favorite pitcher on the main slate tonight, and I could legitimately see around 10+ K’s and 6-7 innings. David Hess has allowed 21 total homeruns this season 8 of which have come at home, but he has allowed 14 to left handed bats and 7 to right handed bats. Left handed hitters are hitting .260 against him while right handed hitters are hitting .281. The Astros bats I would target in this game are Bregman, Altuve, Reddick, White, Kemp, and Tucker. Astros hitters would be my favorite stack if it wasn’t for risk of being pulled later in the game, and the weather risk. The rain shouldn’t be too bad for this game, but Houston is already locked into their spot in the playoffs so I could see them taking a day off today if its “bad”.


Braves @ Mets:

Julio Teheran faces off against Jason Vargas tonight in New York. The rain should hold off until after the game or late into this game so this is definitely a spot we can attack. This season in 4 start vs the Mets Teheran has a 1-1 record, 1.69 ERA, .174 baa, .272 slugging, and 21 K’s in 26 and 2/3 innings. In New York he has a 1-0 record, 2.13 ERA, .163 baa, .279 slugging, and 12 K’s in 12 and 2/3 innings. Teheran is one of my favorite GPP pitchers tonight, and if the game in Baltimore ends up getting rained out I could see him being a good play in cash games as well. For some the Braves lineup today leaves a lot to be desired, but I see some diamonds in the rough. My favorite plays from the Braves lineup are Acuna, Albies, Duvall, Camargo, and Suzuki. I could see some upside in Flaherty if you need the value, but he’s not my favorite play.


Pirates @ Cubs

Trevor Williams faces off with Jon Lester tonight in Chicago. This is a must win game for Cubs with the Brewers only half a game behind in the standings. In two games this season against the Cubs, Williams has a 1-1 record, 1.38 ERA, .170 baa, and 9 K’s in 13 innings pitched, his win vs them came in Wrigley earlier this season. However, Williams is very dependent on Cervelli catching him. With Cervelli catching he has a 2.69 ERA, .226 baa, and a .335 slugging over 107 innings pitched; compared to a 4.63 ERA, 2.44 baa, and .438 slugging in 46.2 innings with Diaz catching. In those 46.2 innings he has allowed 43 hits, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homeruns, and 27 singles. On the other side of this game is Jon Lester, who in 5 starts vs the Pirates this season owns a 3-1 record despite a 3.72 ERA, .255 baa, .445 slugging, and 4 homeruns allowed in 29 innings.  The umpire for tonight’s game is a hitter friendly umpire, thanks @cubbablehoosier for that information, but I think we could see playoff Jon Lester show up in tonights must win game. The Cubs bats I like tonight are Rizzo, Baez, Heyward, and Murphy, but I’m not sure I would stack all of them probably just a two of them or a one off. I could see Osuna and Dickerson hitting home runs off of Lester tonight, but I’m not sure how much exposure I would have to them.


Tigers @ Twins

The former twin Fransisco Liriano faces off against Gabriel Moya. The twins for most of this year have struggled vs left handed pitchers, but they sure have teed off on Liriano this year. In 2 games this season vs the Twins Liriano has a 9.45 ERA, .367 baa, and .733 slugging against. He has allowed 3 home runs, and 7 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 and 2/3 innings pitched vs the Twins this season. My favorite Twins are Austin, Field, Grossman, Polanco, and Forsythe, but I lean Polanco and Austin more than the rest. The Tigers on the other hand have had decent success against left handed pitching this season, but with the lineup they are rolling out today on two pitcher sites I could see some nice upside to Moya. The main Tigers bats I like are Casty, Candelario, Goodrum, and Jones.


Indians @ Royals

Josh Tomlin faces off against Glen Sparkman in KC today. In 189 career plate appearances against Tomlin the Royals have a .299 average against Tomlin who has really struggled this season. In 65 and 2/3 innings pitched Tomlin has allowed 24 home runs, 13 to lefties and 11 to righties. This is an insane amount of home runs for such a small number of innings. The Royals are probably one of my top stacks tonight, and the bats that I like are Merrifield, Gordon, Perez, Dozier, O’Hearn, and Goodwin; Mondesi is always in play for steal upside as well, but I think I will be fading him tonight. Sparkman has pitched 4 times this month and has allowed 4 earned runs over 9 and 1/3 innings pitched, while allowing opposing hitters to hit .316 against him. I could see some upside tonight if the Indians decide to rest some of their starters for the playoffs, but the likes of Alonso, Lindor, and Greg Allen are still in play for me.


Rangers @ Mariners

Ariel Jurado faces off with Marco Gonzales in tonight’s matchup in Seattle. In three starts against the Rangers this season Gonzales has a 2-1 record, 3.57 ERA, .266 baa, and 17 hits allowed in 17 and 2/3 innings pitched. 2 of his starts came in Texas where he had a 5.73 ERA over 11 innings of work, and he allowed all 7 of his earned runs against the Rangers in Texas. I like Gonzales tonight in GPP’s if you want a late hammer, or if you need his savings to fit all the bats you want, I will probably be going this route if I can’t fit the bats I want with Teheran or Cole. Jurado on the other hand is coming off a game where he just faced Seattle, he went 5 innings allowing 6 hits, 2 earned runs, and struck out 2 batters. I have a personal rule about playing hitters against a pitcher that they just faced, because they know exactly what to look for from that pitcher. The Mariners bats that I like are Haniger, Seager, Healy, Zunino, and Gamel. If Hermann plays instead of Zunino I could see him as a punt play on DK. The only Rangers bats I would really look at are Profar and Gallo (only if batting 6th-8th).

 

Hope you guys enjoyed reading this, Good Luck tonight and Let’s Cash.

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