NCAAF DFS Breakdown: 9/1/18

Hello FanCavers!  This Saturday marks the first “main” slate of the season and will cover 16 games with some very high profile teams!  In today’s NCAAF DFS Breakdown: 9/1/18, we will have 3 of my top plays at each position and a little bit of flex talk!

Quarterback:

Jordan Ta’amu (Ole Miss, $9,900):

Ta’amu gets the dream matchup for a gunslinging quarterback in week 1, Texas Tech.  As a conference as a whole, the word defense is foreign to the Big 12, but Texas Tech plays close to no pass defense at all.  Last season the Red Raiders ranked 123rd in the country against the pass, giving up 287 YPG.  Oddly enough, the Texas Tech offense could be what draws me to Ta’amu the most.  Tech loves to throw the ball all over the field and put up points, and that will only lead to more opportunities for Ta’amu to have the ball in his hands.  As I am writing this Texas Tech are -2.5 point favorites over Ole Miss, which means we shouldn’t have to worry about blowout potential, and Ta’amu should have plenty of opportunities to build off his solid performances after taking over for the injured Shea Patterson a year ago.

Trace McSorley (Penn State, $9,800):

McSorley is a name that most people already know, and for good reason.  This year there is plenty of Heisman buzz surrounding Trace due to the even bigger role he will play in Penn State’s success with the loss of Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki.  McSorley finished 2017 throwing for 3,570 yards and 28 TDs, and only scored below 24 DK points on two occasions last season (Iowa and Northwestern both stingy units.)  With Penn State needing McSorley to step up and prove himself early in the season, I can easily see McSorley go for 30 or more in this matchup against an Appalachian State squad that just doesn’t have the talent to hang around.

J.T. Daniels (USC, $8,700):

This is more of a narrative driven play for me.  Daniels is supposed to be early in his season at Mater Dei High School playing in his Senior season.  SUPPOSED TO BE.  Instead Daniels finds himself at the helm of the Trojans offense as he skipped his final year of high school eligibility to get to USC faster.  We have no stats whatsoever to go off of here with Daniels unless you want to dig up his stats from Mater Dei, but I can assure you that any QB who should be in high school and is starting for a program like USC can flat out play.  UNLV finished in the middle of the pack a year ago at 58th in passing YPG allowed (226.5), but when they faced off with Ohio State (only truly tough opponent) they gave up over 450 yards in a game where the Buckeyes played all 3 of their QBs.  What I am getting around to here is even with the narrative being my main drive for this pick, Daniels should still have a very very solid debut.


Running Back

Rodney Anderson (Oklahoma, $9,700):

Anderson is in the same boat as Trace McSorley in my opinion.  Both have the weight on their shoulders of being “The Man” with their stars studded partners moving onto the NFL.  While Baker Mayfield’s successor Kyler Murray is a very good player, it will be on Anderson to make the clutch plays and be a leader on this team.  This game is going to be a shootout, and Anderson is in a nice position going against FAU who gave up 166 YPG rushing last season, but in a matchup against Jonathan Taylor gave up 223 yards to him alone.  Anderson isn’t Taylor, but the level of competition here is comparable.  Anderson was all over the map as far as DK points went last season, but this game is going to end something like 52-31 and he should be able to rack up some points against Lane Kiffin’s Owls.

Devin Singletary (FAU, $7,100):

Heading to the other side of this game, I LOVE Singletary at this price.  Look at his game logs last season, the last 10 games of the season he scored no less than 30 DK points in 9 of them, and reached as high as 54.   In his 2017 campaign, Singletary totaled an astounding 1,920 yards and 33 TDs!  Lane Kiffin has been quoted saying he is not afraid of playing more than one QB in this game, and if he is getting production like this out of Singletary to keep them in the game, he should be able to swap QBs  until he finds a proper fit.  Singletary has been my lock of the week since pricing for this slate came out!  I even put it in the FanCave Discord Chat the day of to show my love for Singletary in this smash spot!

Elijah Holyfield (Georgia, $5,600):

Last season it was Nick Chubb and Sony Michel running the ball for the Bulldogs.  This year it will be D’andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield.  Georgia true Freshman Zamir White went down with an ACL injury before the season started and that opens up even more usage for Holyfield.  If you recall from Georgia’s game plan last season, it was repeatedly pound the football and then hit the opposition with a pass here and there, expect that same strategy this season.  In limited time playing mostly mop up minutes, Holyfield had 50 carries for 293 yards and 2 scores.  Holyfield presents himself as great value at just 5.6k and has some nice upside for GPP play as well.


Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel (South Carolina, $8,000):

Samuel had his year cut short due to a broken leg in 2017, but the 3 games he did play in he was highly productive.  Scoring 31, 24, and 26 DK points in his 3 game stretch last season, Samuel was able to catch 15 passes for 250 yards and 4 TDs as well as being a lethal return man for the Gamecocks.  South Carolina gets a nice opener against Coastal Carolina and a chance to get Samuel’s feet wet in game action again.  I think I would just reserve Samuel for GPP, but as I have said in my first few articles if you aren’t afraid to get risky with your cash lineup…I really like Samuel in this matchup.

D.K. Metcalf (Ole Miss, $6,200):

Metcalf is a very nice play to handcuff to Jordan Ta’amu.  While Ole Miss’ top wideout is A.J Brown, we can find handcuff a receiver to Ta’Amu while saving 5.6k in salary.  Last year Metcalf caught 39 passes for 646 yards and 7 TDs, all numbers I expect to shoot up after another season of practice and time to develop more chemistry with Ta’amu.  The same statistic applies for Metcalf that it did with Ta’amu, Texas Tech was DREADFUL against the pass last year, and I fully expect them to be equally as bad this season.

Parris Campbell (Ohio State, $5,800):

Ohio State returns its top 7 leading receivers from a season ago, but for some reason I can’t help but feel the Campbell is a little underpriced by DraftKings in this spot.  Last year Campbell recorded 40 catches for 584 yards and 4 TDs, which isn’t all that great.  With Dwayne Haskins now at QB, the offense projects to be more of a run and throw the ball down the field instead of little screens and short routes they were forced to run due to J.T. Barret struggling throwing the ball.  Haskins is the key to Campbell’s productivity this year, and I am a big believer in his ability to get the ball to his receivers consistently all year long.


Flex Talk:

From the research I got in for this slate, wide receiver felt the weakest to me.  With how big of a slate we have here it will be necessary to keep researching all the way up until lock.  As of now my plan is to try and fit 2 QBs in, however if I can’t make this work I may end up with a 4 RB team like I had on the Thursday slate.  I will be digging in harder tomorrow and will have a lot more info gathered after this crazy week of work, so if you have any questions closer to lock feel free to DM me at @dfs_sb.


Don’t forget that for just $5 a month you could have the opportunity to talk to myself as well as other FanCave analysts about each and every slate throughout the week in our Discord Chat, for all sports as well not just NCAAF!  Thanks for reading and let’s #BuildPlayWin.

 

 

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