MLB FanCave Pitching Breakdown: 8/28/18

I am going to do a game by game pitching breakdown, but before we get to that, I want to take a minute to drop a little ad for our Discord app chat.

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This matchup features Lance Lynn and James Shields. If you look at their numbers for the season you would think this game should be high scoring, but lets dig a little deeper. Lance Lynn has been bad his last two starts allowing 5 runs in each start, but in fantasy terms he made up for those runs by striking out 5 and 6 batters in each start. In 66 career plate appearances this White Sox team has a 33.3 K%, a .250 baa, and .267 wOBA. On the other side Shields also has good history vs the Yankees roster, but I think the Yankees break up comes tonight so I will have no shares of Shields. Lynn is my guy in this matchup.


This matchup is a rematch of last week and features NL CY Young contenders Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola. Last week these two matched up in Washington and had a pitchers duel. Nola ended up winning the duel by going 8 innings and striking out 9 batters while only allowing 5 hits. Mad Max on the other side wasn’t bad either going 7 innings striking out 10 batters and allowing just 2 hits, what really hurt him was the 4 Phillies batters he walked. At home this season Nola holds a 9-0 record with a 2.00 ERA, .212 baa, and 90 K’s in 81 innings. In the month of August Nola is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA, .194 baa, and 27 K’s in 27 innings. Tonight is also the 12th time this season that Aaron Nola has started after a Phillies’ loss. He is 7-0  with a 1.48 ERA in previous 11 starts. I would not play many batters in this matchup. Bryce Harper has nice bvp vs Nola, and I wouldn’t fault the play, but I personally will not be rostering him.


The Blue Jays chalk disappointed a lot of people last night, but David Hess had solid numbers vs them in his two starts this season. Enough about last night though. Tonight we get 2 rookies facing off. Thomas Pannone faces off against Josh Rogers. Pannone made his first MLB start last week, coincidentally also against the O’s, and went 7 innings allowing 1 hit and striking out 3. Pannone threw 108 pitches in this matchup, and this was only the second time this season, including minors, that he threw over 100 pitches. I don’t think he fairs nearly as well tonight in Baltimore. Rogers came over in the Zach Britton trade, and since joining the O’s organization has a 2-1 record, 2.05 ERA, and .226 baa over 30 and 1/3 innings. The only downside for Rogers is he has just 18 K’s in those 30 innings. Interesting note for this matchup would be Danny Jansen who went 1-2 with 2 rbi’s and a walk in his only time facing Rogers in the minors. This game on paper looks like a nice game to stack both sides of, but we all know how those games go.


Jose Urena comes off his suspension to face the Red Sox who are pitching Brian Johnson tonight. Some people will see Urena’s 40% K% vs the Red Sox in 15 plate appearances, but something tells me that game was in Miami. On the season against left handed bats Urena has allowed 72 hits, 11 homeruns, and allowed them to hit .265 over 70 and 1/3 innings this season. This seems like a great day for a Beni/Moreland stack, but we can’t forget about the steal upside of Mookie Betts tonight. Boston should be a chalky stack tonight and for good reason. That being said Urena does have favorable splits with Holaday catching. With Holaday catching he has a 3.53 ERA, .215 baa, and 23 K’s over 35 and 2/3 inning. However, on the other side of this matchup is Brian Johnson who has been a lot better on the road than at home this season, but for his cheap price I like him a lot tonight. He faced the Marlins earlier this season and went 6 innings allowing 1 run, 6 hits, and striking out 5. I had his splits with Leon catching written up, but now it’s Swihart catching so here are his splits. His splits with Swihart catching this season are a 3.34 ERA, a .241 baa, and 31 K’s over 29 and 2/3 innings. His baa and K’s are actually a little better with Swihart catching over Leon. I like the idea of pitching Johnson and paying up for bats tonight.


Junior Guerra and Anthony Desclafani face off in this matchup. Desclafani faced the Brewers on June 28th going 6 and 1/3 innings, allowing 5 hits, 4 runs, and striking out 6. On the other side Guerra has faced the Reds this season and over a total of 11 and 2/3 innings he has allowed 9 hits, 4 runs and struck out 13, but the biggest thing to remember is both of these games Joey Votto played in. Against the current Reds roster Guerra has a 22% K% and .297 baa over 84 plate appearances. I don’t really like either pitcher here, but if I had to choose one it would be Guerra.


Kyle Gibson and Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco face each other. Gibson has had a few good starts this season, but he has faced Cleveland 4 times this season. In his two starts in Cleveland he has gone 12 innings allowing 10 hits, 5 earned runs (7 total), and struck out 6 batters. However, in his last start in Cleveland he was only able to go 5 innings allowing 7 hits, 4 earned runs (6 total), and striking out 3. Most of the Cleveland hitters have good bvp vs Gibson. On the other side is Cookie who is a very good pitcher, but for some reason struggles at home. The last time he faced the Twins at home he went 6 and 1/3 innings allowing 10 hits, 3 runs, and striking out 8. Fading Carrasco at home is a personal rule of mine, but I will not fault you for playing him.


Ryne Stanek and Julio Teheran face off in this matchup. Yonny Chirinos is supposed to be the one coming in after Stanek to pitch a majority of the game, but I do not like him much either. To me this game screams “BATS”, but probably different bats than most. On the Braves side I like Albies, Acuna, and Suzuki, while on the Rays side I like the lefties, but one specific lefty I want is Mallex Smith. I am higher on Mallex than the rest purely because of the revenge game narrative he has.


Walker Buehler and Ariel Jurado oppose each other on the mound tonight. The Dodgers are getting the most love around the industry, and I can see why, but I think it is important to note that in 11 innings at home Jurado has allowed just 1 homerun. Buehler has struggled away from LA this season, but has pitched on a whole new level since the All-Star break. Since the ASB he owns a 2-2 record with a 2.19 ERA over 37 innings while allowing 24 hits and striking out 43 batters. I could see some upside to Buehler tonight, but gut feeling says Rangers hit him.


The third contender for the NL Cy Young Jacob Degrom matches up against Cole Hamels. Degrom faces a red hot cubs offense that has scored 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games, with Daniel Murphy (former Met, and crushes them when he plays them) and Anthony Rizzo leading the way. Degrom has amazing numbers against this current Cubs roster, but I am leaning towards the Cubs offense keeping it up. Cole Hamels on the other hand gets a matchup against the Mets who have struggled vs lefties all season. Hamels numbers aren’t as flashy as Degrom’s but he still has a 23.4% K% against their current roster. Since being traded to the Cubs Hamels has a 4-0 record, .79 ERA, .212 baa, and 30 K’s over 34 innings pitched. Both of these starters should have decent games, but I’m leaning towards Hamels having the better game tonight.


Edwin Jackson and Charlie Morton battle in the race for first place in the AL West. Edwin Jackson has been pitching well above his normal self this season. In his only start vs Houston he went 5 innings allowing 5 hits 2 runs, and striking out 2 batters. This is a pretty decent performance, but the Astros were not at full strength in this matchup. Since Jose Altuve has come off the DL the Astros have won all 6 games. I believe regression hits Jackson hard tonight. Morton on the other hand has faced Oakland twice this season and has not been able to make it past 5 innings in either game. I could see some upside, but I think this game is a high scoring game.


Matt Boyd and Jake Junis face off tonight. The Royals have been bad vs left handed pitchers all season, but in KC have gotten to Boyd a little bit. In his two starts in KC he has allowed 13 hits and 6 runs and struck out 12 batters in 13 innings. Junis has great history vs this Tigers roster , who has had their share of struggles vs right handed pitchers. In 81 plate appearances Junis has a 21% K% and .173 baa vs the Tigers roster. If I were to roster a pitcher in this game it would be Junis, but I am avoiding both.


Ivan Nova and Jack Flaherty square off in St. Louis. Both have an even 77 plate appearances vs these rosters, and Jack’s numbers are far and away better. Nova has an 11.7% K% vs the Cardinals with a .333 baa. While Jack has a 22.1% K% and a .224 baa. I could see Flaherty continuing to dazzle tonight and make his case for NL ROY even greater.

The three late games COL vs LAASEA vs SDP, and ARZ vs SFG are all games I would look for bats from. Buchholz is another pitcher who regression should be coming for sometime soon, and I think the streaking Giants are the team that hurts him. I could see rostering Madison Bumgarner tonight especially with his numbers at home this season, but something tells me the Diamondbacks don’t get shutout again. Paul Goldschmidt has some nice BvP, and Mike Trout has been on a tear since coming off the DL, if I can fit both I most likely will. Thanks for reading and remember to #BuildPlayWin

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