MLB FanCave Full Look (FanDuel): 8/18/18

Welcome to today’s MLB FanCave Full Look, covering the main slate on FanDuel starting at 7:05 PM ET. This full look will target this 11-game slate as a whole. I will be filling in for Chris this weekend as he is on a road trip with the family.

I will highlight my top pitchers, one for cash games and one for GPP, followed by my top stacks, and my favorite value bats that I will be building my lineups around. Before we get to our breakdown, I want to take a minute to drop a little ad for our Discord app chat.

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David Price – Boston Red Sox – $10,100

While myself and many others still have the belief that Price is on the decline, he’s put some of that noise to rest as of late. He’s recorded a quality start in each of his last 5 outings and has posted a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 1.64 ERA (backed by a 3.24 xFIP) over that span. He’s also been limiting the amount of fly-balls surrendered (32.6%) and has walked under 4% of batters faced.

The Rays numbers against left-handed pitching this season are somewhat skewed, as Daniel Robertson and Wilson Ramos did a lot of the damage and are on the DL or have been traded since the deadline. The current projected starters have a 25.4% strikeout rate against lefties and as a team, the Rays rank 26th in the league in ISO vs LHP over the last month (0.102). With them also being implied for the lowest team total on the slate (3.5 runs) and the Red Sox listed as the heaviest favorite (-199), Price checks every box you need in a cash pitcher.

Tournaments (GPP):

Mike Foltynewicz – Atlanta Braves – $9,600

I expect a lot of players to flock to Jefry Rodriguez in GPPs (which is not a bad play by any means), which makes me like Folty that much more.

I hit on it in my Quick Hits article, but the Rockies are exponentially worse on the road than they are at home (reverse Coors effect?). On the road, their wOBA drops from 4th in the league (0.347) to 23rd (0.299) and their ISO drops from 3rd (0.192) to 16th (0.159). Their strikeout rate also rises from 21.2% to 24.6%.

This caters right to Folty’s strength, as he’s posted a 27.8% strikeout rate this season and has held both left and right handed hitters to wOBAs below 0.300. The Rockies are implied for only 3.8 runs and the Braves come in as the -156 favorite tonight, giving Folty a great chance at a ceiling game tonight while going overlooked by the masses.

*BONUS GPP FLYER: Jefry Rodriguez – Washington Nationals – $5,600* – dirt cheap and allows you to pay up for virtually any stack you want and the Marlins are still only implied for 4 runs.

Top Stacks:

Washington Nationals – (OF – Bryce Harper $4,800, OF – Juan Soto $4,100, 3B – Anthony Rendon $4,000, 1B – Ryan Zimmerman $3,200)

Whenever Wei-Yin Chen is on the road, he’s an easy target to stack against in DFS. His ERA is over 8 points higher away from home and his 6.08 xFIP doesn’t indicate any type of progression on the horizon. While he allows a 0.188 ISO to left-handed hitters, he’s brutal against righties, allowing a 0.360 wOBA and a 0.206 ISO). This is a spot where you can load up on both sides of the dish. My ideal targets are below along with their wOBAs and ISOs against left-handed pitching:

  • (L) Harper: 0.360 wOBA, 0.214 ISO
  • (L) Soto: 0.433 wOBA, 0.282 ISO
  • (R) Rendon: 0.407 wOBA, 0.264 ISO
  • (R) Zimmerman: 0.510 wOBA, 0.352 ISO

Rendon clocks in as one of my top overall plays of the slate while Zimmerman comes in as my favorite dollar-for-dollar play at only $3,200. They also lead the main slate with an implied run total of 5.6 (gone up 0.3 since the line opened). This will be your chalk team in cash games with a GPP-winning ceiling.

Los Angeles Dodgers – (SS – Manny Machado $4,200, OF – Cody Bellinger $3,400, C – Yasmani Grandal $3,300, OF – Joc Pederson $3,000, 1B – Max Muncy $2,900)

While I scrolled through Twitter last night and this morning, I noticed a friend of mine and writer for Fantasy CPR, Adam Strangis, giving fellow friend and writer Brian Tulloch crap for his infatuation with the Dodgers. I need to ask…Brian – is there room in the love triangle?!

The Dodgers are always on my radar as a team to stack and if it weren’t for the limitations on stacking players on FanDuel, I might roster all 9 of their hitters tonight.

They head to Seattle to face off with Erasmo Ramirez, the owner of a 14.3% strikeout rate and 48.1% hard-contact rating. Oh yes, and he allows a wOBA and ISO over 0.500 against left-handed hitters and an ISO over 0.300 against righties. That is not a typo. Ramirez is lined up to get absolutely rocked tonight, and it starts with the 5 players below (wOBA and ISO vs RHP listed):

  • (R) Machado: 0.401 wOBA, 0.252 ISO
  • (L) Bellinger: 0.377 wOBA, 0.236 ISO
  • (S) Grandal: 0.381 wOBA, 0.268 ISO
  • (L) Pederson: 0.391 wOBA, 0.304 ISO
  • (L) Muncy: 0.403 wOBA, 0.332 ISO

All five of these players are viable in all formats. If I am going with a full Dodgers stack, the odd man out of those five would likely be Max Muncy, strictly due to recent form since the All-Star break, though he did homer last night.

Their implied run total of 4.6 seems downright disrespectful regardless of the fact that it’s climbed by 0.3 since it opened. Load up the Dodgers and watch the runs fly in.

BONUS OPTION: Arizona Diamondbacks vs LHP Clayton Richard (SDP)

Top Value Bats:

1B – Brandon Belt – San Francisco Giants – $3,100

While he was a massive disappointment yesterday, Belt checks in tonight with an even better matchup than he did last night. He faces off against Matt Harvey in Great American Ballpark (yes, please), who has allowed a 0.363 wOBA and a 0.237 ISO to left handed batters. Belt has also had a fantastic year himself, posting a 0.401 wOBA and 0.239 ISO against right-handed pitching. With the Nationals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks all in good spots tonight, I expect these cheap Giants to go under-owned.

SS – Brandon Crawford – San Francisco Giants – $2,800

Piggy-backing off of the Belt blurb, Crawford has also posted a respectable 0.333 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. His 0.140 ISO leaves a bit to be desired, but we’ve seen his ability to take a crappy pitcher deep in the past, and the fact that this game is in Great American Ballpark and not AT&T Park only heightens that ceiling.

1B – Tyler Austin – Minnesota Twins – $2,700

After slugging his first home run with his new club last night (shoutout to the FanCave optimizer for having him in the line!), he has the chance to repeat that performance tonight against Ryan Carpenter. He’s allowed a 0.395 wOBA and a 0.214 ISO against righties this season. Austin, on the other hand, has crushed lefties to the tune of a 0.400 wOBA and 0.33 ISO in 69 plate appearances.

OF – Alex Gordon – Kansas City Royals – $2,600

While I am actually a fan of Dylan Covey tonight in large-field GPPs, I do understand the upside that the Royals offense carries tonight. He’s been hitting out of the 2-hole lately and Gordon has posted a respectable 0.320 wOBA against righties, while Covey has allowed a 0.362 wOBA to left-handed batters. This is more of a “safe” value play for cash games if you pay up for Price, but there is definitely upside to be had here.

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