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Last night was a bit odd, as a lot of the chalk busted, but with the help of late-hammers Zach Eflin and Justin Upton, I was able to make it 3 of my last 4 nights hitting GPPs and quins (the only formats I play in MLB).
Tonight, we turn our attention to a 10-game main slate featuring Trevor Bauer, Aaron Nola, Coors, and James Shields, making this an extremely fun slate with a ton of places to go.
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Now, let’s get into tonight’s MLB DFS Quick Hits:
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
This game has question marks in just about every facet; from who will actually play, to whether or not the game itself will actually play. With it being the back end of a double-header, there is a chance that a handful of the regulars rest. One player who is currently sitting for the first game and is expected to play in the night game, Rafael Devers. He’s been red-hot since the break, posting a 0.365 wOBA, 0.222 ISO and only striking out at a 17.5% clip. He’ll face off against Yefry Ramirez, who’s posted a 7.28 SIERA, 37% hard-contact% and only a 12.2% K-rate while walking 19.5% of batters over the last two weeks. Devers should have the chance to have a handful of ABs against Ramirez, given the fact that Baltimore burned through pitchers last night and has a double-header today.
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
Aside from Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer might be the only other pitcher in contention for the AL Cy Young award. He doesn’t come cheap tonight ($12,000 on Fanduel), but his 31.3% strikeout rate, 3.22 SIERA and 12.9% swinging-strike rate are by far away the best metrics on the slate. Combine that with the White Sox’s 25.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (worst in the MLB), and he comes with the highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
The Braves are always a strong GPP stack as they never carry a high level of ownership, and tonight is a spot to go after them again. Wade Miley has severely out-pitched his peripherals, posting a 2.10 ERA compared to a 5.28 SIERA, only a 15.4% K-rate and a 46.1% hard-contact%. The righties are prime GPP targets here (Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Johan Camargo, Adam Duvall), but adding a lefty like Freddie Freeman (0.396 wOBA and 0.247 ISO vs LHP) could be the differentiator, as most will avoid the L/L matchup.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Much like yesterday unless you pitched Zach Wheeler, this is a game that you’ll want to avoid on both sides. Neither Dan Straily or Corey Oswalt have enough of a case to warrant a start on a one-pitcher site, but they Straily makes for an interesting option on 2-pitcher sites (25.4% strikeout rate over last two weeks, but a 55% hard-contact% has been off the bandwagon). If you really want to get cute in GPPs, you could target Michael Conforto with the platoon advantage, as Straily allows 0.364 wOBA and a 42.6% hard-contact% to lefties.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
While a ton of attention will be on Trevor Bauer and Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton should not be forgotten. He clocks in as arguably the best option based off of Vegas data (SEA implied for slate-low 3.1 runs) and has the chance to turn Houston around in this series. With both Cole and Verlander experiencing struggles with the Mariners this series, Morton’s 3.27 xFIP and 30.8% K-rate gives you one more reason to try again. It also helps that he’s held the current Mariners lineup to a 0.278 wOBA and 0.116 ISO in their 153 career plate-appearances.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
If you’re looking for a cheap SP pivot, Jack Flaherty may be your guy. Priced down at $8,000 on Fanduel, Flaherty has posted a 29/9% strikeout rate on the season, and his success is backed by his 3.71 xFIP and 20.4% soft-contact%. He’s also held both righties and lefties to wOBAs under 0.300. The Royals are not the team we once thought they were, as they’ve sputtered to the tune of a 21.3% K-rate against righties with a mediocre 0.304 wOBA. They’re expected to roll out 5 lefties tonight, but Flaherty has held lefties to a 0.112 ISO, rendering them virtually useless. He clocks in as an elite play in all formats in my book.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Unlike last night, I expect Coors to carry heavy ownership tonight, especially the Dodgers. Kyle Freeland hasn’t been bad at all this season, but the lack of strikeout upside (18.9% K-rate) leaves something to be desired. The Dodgers also have three hitters with wOBA over 0.380 against lefties (Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Matt Kemp) and both Kemp and Machado also carry ISOs over 0.200. While a full stack may not be advisable, getting a one-off or two here may be a smart strategy.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
After Zach Eflin posted 40 points at 3.5% ownership on FanDuel last night, I expect Aaron Nola‘s ownership to increase potentially 10-fold. He’s been remarkable this season, posting a 24.8% K-rate and limit opponents to a measly 24.9% strikeout rate. He’s also held both lefties and righties to wOBAs under 0.260 and ISOs under 0.100. The Padres strike out at a 26.5% rate against righties and are currently implied for only 3.3 runs, which still seems a bit generous. While his ceiling may not be as high as Trevor Bauer’s, the $1,500 savings make him much easier to work a lineup around.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Whenever Ty Blach takes the bump, you can confidently target hitters from the other side, as he’s posted a 12.5% strikeout rate (9.4% over the last two weeks) and a 34.2% hard-contact%. The Pirates are never a team that carry heavy ownership and after scoring double-digit runs last night, the potential is there tonight again. Starling Marte (0.186 ISO vs LHP) and David Freese (0.346 wOBA vs LHP) are ideal targets, while Gregory Polanco (0.308 wOBA, 0.200 ISO vs LHP) could be a GPP-winning piece of a stack that will carry virtually no ownership in a L/L matchup. Jordy Mercer is another piece of this stack that has been seeing the ball well and also provides some salary relief at a rather thin position tonight.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Another pitcher outperforming his peripherals? Edwin Jackson of the Athletics. His 2.87 ERA is “backed” by his 4.56 SIERA and his 18.5% strikeout rate paired with a 33.1% hard-contact% indicate regression on the horizon. Even with Mike Trout on the DL, the Angels have the pieces to do damage. Look towards a trio of Kole Calhoun (0.209 ISO vs RHP), Justin Upton (0.371 wOBA, 0.226 ISO vs RHP) and Shohei Ohtani (0.428 wOBA, 0.340 ISO vs RHP) to make one of the premier GPP stacks on the slate.