Well it was another successful day of MLB Quick Hits last night and it seems like these articles are helping me just as much as they’re hopefully helping you all!
My lineup was built around a handful of mini-stacks last night, including the Yankees, Brewers and Angels with Tyler Glasnow coming up huge at 3% as my pitcher (I stick to GPPs in MLB).
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We move on to tonight’s 9-game slate headed by Clayton Kershaw against the Athletics and the Dodgers set to tee off against Mike Fiers, so let’s cut the fluff and get to tonight’s MLB DFS Quick Hits:
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
One stack that I expect to go a bit overlooked tonight due to the overall success of Mike Foltynewicz this season is the Washington Nationals. While Folty got off to a blistering start to the season, he’s allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, and has been haunted by lefties over the course of his career (0.354 wOBA, 4.91 xFIP vs LHP). This makes Bryce Harper, Matt Adams and Juan Soto all viable as they all post 0.200+ ISOs against righties this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Just days after an impressive debut when he went 6 scoreless innings against the Mariners, Mike Hauschild gets the nightmare of squaring off against the Red Sox in his second start of the season. While his debut went better than expected, his 4.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in AAA leave way too much to be desired against a team like Boston. Virtually the entire team is in play, with the 3-headed monster in the outfield as the core (Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi). Third baseman Rafael Devers is also min-priced on FanDuel and is expected to return from the DL this evening. Take advantage of that price and don’t look back.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins
Matt Carpenter just keeps on crushing the baseball, as he homered again last night making that 4 in his last 5 games and 27 over his last 69 games. He’s been moved back to C/1B on FanDuel and clocks in as the highest priced player at the position against Trevor Richards of the Marlins who has actually been tougher on lefties than he has on righties this season. That, however, could change rather soon, as his FIP (2.96) is over a full point lower than his xFIP (4.39) against lefties. If negative regression is going to hit, I would bank on the hottest hitter on the planet having something to do with it.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Cashner finally imploded last time out, giving up 10 earned runs to the Rangers. He looks primed for a bounce-back against the rather low-key Rays, but this lineup has some unexpected talent that can be used as a great source of ownership leverage in DFS. Two great GPP targets on this slate, Jake Bauers and CJ Cron both have ISOs over 0.200 against right-handed pitching (0.259 and 0.235 respectively) and Cashner has allowed 1.34 HR/9 this season (up 0.53 from last season) and his ground-ball rate has dropped 7% while his fly-ball rate has gone up. Both of these players carry GPP-winning upside and will come at relatively low ownership.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
When a pitcher as consistent as Mike Clevinger finds himself in a matchup like this, you can expect him to carry a significant level of ownership in cash games. Without Dozier and Escobar, the Twins are struggling to put the bat on the ball since the trade deadline. Since then, they rank 18th in ISO vs RHP (0.147) and 16th in wOBA vs RHP (0.303), but also have the 6th highest strikeout rate (25.5%). Clevinger has an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate and an impressive 11.8% swinging strike rate that should have the Twins on their heels tonight (Miguel Sano always carries 4 K potential himself). He brings a solid 30-35 point floor with 60-point upside to the table, making him a stable cash game option.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
This likely will not be a popular game to target on tonight’s slate, even with Jhoulys Chacin on the mound for the Brewers. If I were to look at bats in this game, I would actually look at the other side as the Brewers face off against Brett Kennedy in his major league debut. He went 10-0 with a 2.72 ERA (3.88 xFIP) and a 22.1% K-rate in AAA this season, but against a power-hitting team like the Brewers, disaster could be imminent. The Brewers lefties make for a great GPP stack in the friendly confines of Miller Park, as Christian Yelich (0.207), Eric Thames (0.305), Mike Moustakas (0.242) and Travis Shaw (0.283) all have ISOs above 0.200 against right-handed pitchers.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
At first glance, the price tag on Luis Severino against the White Sox seems like a no brainer, but I recommend pumping the breaks a bit. It’s been a tale of two halves for the young phenom this season. After starting the season with a 2.10 ERA (backed by a 2.93 xFIP, 30.4% K-rate and 0.243 opponent wOBA), Severino has sputtered since the calendar turned to July. Since July 1st, he’s posted a 6.54 ERA backed by a 4.36 xFIP, 18.9% K-rate and 0.399 opponent wOBA. I am not recommending you stack the White Sox (although it could be a sneaky GPP stack), but I would recommend looking at other pitching options until Severino rights his ship.
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
While the Royals are never a team that people peg to strike out a ton, their 23.4% strikeout rate against lefties ranks 6th highest in the entire MLB, while their 0.124 ISO ranks 27th and their 0.295 wOBA ranks 26th. This gives the rather limited strikeout appeal of Jose Quintana a boost from his 20.7% mark on the season. He’s also posted at least 34 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 5 outings and has only allowed more than 2 earned runs three times dating back to June 1st. At $8,300, it’s hard to find a more ideal point-per-dollar pitcher on the slate.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics
Almost the entire Dodgers’ lineup is virtually a cheat code against both right and left-handed pitching, as 8, yes EIGHT, players have ISOs over 0.200 against right-handed pitching; Max Muncy (0.322), Joc Pederson (0.310), Yasmani Grandal (0.270), Yasiel Puig (0.259), Kike Hernandez (0.245), Cody Bellinger (0.229), Manny Machado (0.217), and Brian Dozier (0.213). Recently acquired Mike Fiers has been more effective than usual as of late, but has still allowed a 36.7% hard-contact% and 1.51 HR/9 on the season with a 4.53 SIERA, so I expect him to come back down to Earth a bit. This stack could even fly under the radar with Boston and Cleveland in great spots. Happy late-hammer night.