While I was unable to get an article out this weekend as I was in Chicago from Saturday until Monday morning, I was able to throw a line together on Sunday and ended up cashing rather deep in all GPPs thanks to Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, delivering me 8x ROI, which we will look to build on tonight in this MLB DFS Breakdown.
For those of you that didn’t read my first installment of the “MLB DFS Quick Hits” series, I will run through every game on the slate and give you one piece or pertinent data or information that I think will help you cut the fluff when starting your research.
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Now that the quick ad spot is out of the way, let’s get to the Quick Hits:
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Anthony Rendon is notorious for crushing lefties and tonight may be a night to get him at lower ownership with the platoon-advantage than usual. Braves’ Sean Newcomb has been stellar as of late, but I’m more than willing to overlook his recent success given Rendon’s 0.416 wOBA, 0.296 ISO and his ridiculous 48.4% hard-contact% against southpaws knowing that the field may not flock to him like they usually do.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
If you’re searching for value tonight (which you likely will because of some of the pitching options and stacks), the Blue Jays may be a great source of salary relief. They take on Drew Pomeranz of the Red Sox, who has struggled mightily with command this season, allowing a 12.3% walk-rate (5.21/9 innings) while also giving up a 38.1% hard-contact%. Focus your stack around Teoscar Hernandez (0.291 ISO vs LHP) and build around him with some Justin Smoak (0.316 wOBA vs LHP) and Yangervis Solarte (0.220 ISO vs LHP). This is a stack that I expect to all go under 15% owned in all formats as well.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
I’m going to preface this by saving I am never 100% on board with rostering a Rays’ pitcher because of their tendency to rely on the bullpen, but Tyler Glasnow‘s ceiling at his price is too high to completely overlook in GPPs. He’s only pitched 144.1 innings in the majors, but flashed his upside last game with the Rays in 3 innings, racking up 5 strikeouts while allowing 2 hits and a run and has also posted a respectable 23.6% K-rate through his brief career. The Orioles are the new go-to team to pitch against in DFS since losing both Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop and with Alex Cobb on the mound for the O’s, there is a good chance that Glasnow gets a W should he stretched out enough to pitch deep enough. Even if he doesn’t pitch deep, at his price, 20-25 FDP (21 FDP in 3 innings last game) is more than enough as he allows you to stack virtually anyone you want.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
The Indians are once again in a prime attack spot and come in as one of the best stacks of the night against lefty Adalberto Mejia of the Twins. Meija has kept the ball in the yard this season, but his 1.25 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired. The Indians lineup is patient at the plate with plenty of pop. Both Francisco Lindor and Brandon Guyer have wOBAs north of 0.400 against lefties, while Lindor, Guyer, Jose Ramirez and Yan Gomes all have ISOs over 0.200 against southpaws. This could be a smash spot for the Indians, and I recommend getting at least one piece of exposure.
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
One stack that always seems to go under the radar is the Cincinnati Reds, but I do not expect that to be the case tonight against Jason Vargas, who owns a brutal 5.05 xFIP, 36.7% hard-contact% and a 40.9% fly-ball%. The obvious centerpiece here is Eugenio Suarez (0.493 wOBA, 0.326 ISO vs LHP in 2018), but Joey Votto (0.325 wOBA vs LHP) warrants consideration as well and should be rather low-owned considering how many will avoid the L/L matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins
Righty Miles Mikolas is never a popular DFS option due to his lack of strikeout upside (17.5% K rate), but this is a matchup where he should be able to excel, again. Back in June, he tossed 7 shutout innings against the Marlins while posting 5 strikeouts and only allowing 3 hits and 1 walk. He does a fantastic job at keeping the ball on the ground (50.8% GB rate) and these Marlins have the highest ground-ball percentage in the league against righties (48.4%) while also striking out at a 23.0% clip, heightening Mikolas’ upside a bit.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
This game may very well end up being the highest scoring game on the slate, as we have two regressing veterans in Felix Hernandez and Bartolo Colon toeing the rubber. I expect the Texas lefties to be extremely chalky, as Rougned Odor (0.213), Shin-Soo Choo (0.240) and Joey Gallo (0.262) all post ISOs above 0.200 against righties. On the other side of the field, Nelson Cruz has 4 home runs in his last 6 games and comes in with immense upside tonight.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
After a rather impressive start to the season, Padres’ lefty Clayton Richard has scuffled a bit, allowing 15 earned runs in his last 13 innings and things won’t look up tonight. The Brewers have 5 players that could crack the lineup with ISOs north of 0.200 against lefties; Hernan Perez (0.293), Jesus Aguilar (0.269), Christian Yelich (0.237), Ryan Braun (0.229) and Lorenzo Cain (0.214). Add in the fact that this game is in Miller Park and not Petco. and Richard could be in for a long night.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Prior to his bounce-back game against the Royals last start, White Sox’s Reynaldo Lopez had been brutalized by opponents to the tune of 18 earned runs over 17 innings. He’s been especially bad against lefties, striking out only 14.7% while allowing a 33.7% hard-contact%, making Didi Gregorious (0.235 ISO vs RHP) a prime option at shortstop tonight.
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
This is a game that I likely won’t have much expore to given the other stacking options on the slate, but Brad Keller‘s 3.39 ERA doesn’t quite match up with his xFIP over 4.00 (4.91 vs LHB), meaning that there could be a bit of regression on the horizon. Power-hitting lefties Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ are all viable options and make for a decent mini-stack as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
With Antonio Senzatela placed on the DL, the Rockies are without an official starter for their Tuesday night tilt against the Pirates, but speculation is that Chad Bettis will fill the void. On the season, Bettis has only posted a 16.9% K-rate while allowing a 34.6% hard-contact percentage. You shouldn’t need extra justification to stack a team in Coors Field, but if Bettis toes the mound for the Rockies, the Pirates become one of the top overall stacks on the slate.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Zack Greinke has quietly had a phenomenal bounce-back season for the Diamondbacks. Over his last 4 starts, he’s posted 31 strikeouts in 29.2 innings while only allowing 4 total runs with a quality start in all four games. The Phillies have some weapons in their lineup, but have posted a 25.8% strikeout rate against righties (2nd highest in the entire MLB) while posting a middling ISO (0.171) and wOBA (0.315) against RHP. If you want a GPP pivot off of Scherzer or an ace that still saves a bit of salary in cash, Greinke is a phenomenal option.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics
If you’re into narratives, then you might want to check out Rich Hill‘s return to Oakland tonight. He’s found his groove over his last three starts, posting a 0.96 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 3.03 xFIP. The matchup is boom or bust, as Oakland has the ability to put up runs in a hurry, but the recent success combined with the homecoming narrative make Hill a very enticing GPP play.
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
Even with Mike Trout potentially out of the lineup, the Angels make for a phenomenal late-hammer stack tonight. Opponent Jacob Turner hasn’t impressed in the bigs, posting a 5.26 ERA since 2011 (4.06 in the minors this season) and got demolished by the Phillies last time out, allowing 8 earned runs in only 1 inning of work. The two bats I have my eyes on are lefties Kole Calhoun (0.303 wOBA, 0.213 ISO vs RHP) and Shohei Ohtani (0.420 wOBA, 0.328 ISO vs RHP). If Mike Trout returns, he’s immediately slotted in as one of the top plays on the entire slate.