MLB DFS Quick Hits: 8/4/18

Last night wasn’t as successful as I’d hoped and I’ve hit a rough patch over this last half-week or so in MLB DFS, so it’s time to get back to the basics and snap out of the slump. Patrick Corbin did his job for me last night, but the Tigers bats did not.

This is a new article series that I will be starting, called “MLB DFS Quick Hits”. I will run through every game on the slate and give you one piece or pertinent data or information that I think will help you cut the fluff when starting your research.

Today, we have 12 games on the 7:05pm main slate, so I will provide 12 quick hits.

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With that being said, here are today’s MLB Quick Hits:

Cincinnati Reds (+155) @ Washington Nationals (-170)

While this is the second game of the double-header today, don’t try and get cute by thinking Matt Harvey may be pitching against the B-team Nats today. He’s allowed 18 total home runs on the season, and he’s been especially bad versus left-handed hitters, surrendering 10 of those 18 home runs, a 5.15 xFIP and a 42.5% hard-contact%. Load up on all the Murphy/Harper/Soto assuming they play both games.

Miami Marlins (+151) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-164)

The Marlins are always a great way to gain some ownership leverage on the field, and I don’t expect them to warrant any consideration at all tonight. Look at Justin Bour to potentially be the #CriminalOwnership play of the slate, as he’s posted a 0.216 ISO and 41.7% hard-contact% against right handed pitching, while Zach Eflin has quietly allowed a 0.349 wOBA against LHBs and 7 of his 10 home runs.

St. Louis Cardinals (+106) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)

Pirates righty Ivan Nova has been a homerun-serving machine this season (20 total) and has particularily struggled against left-handed batters (0.363 wOBA, 11.7% K-rate). Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals leadoff man Matt Carpenter is exactly the kind of LHB he wants to avoid, as he’s posted a ridiculous 0.403 wOBA and 0.291 ISO off of righties this season.

Atlanta Braves (-121) @ New York Mets (+112)

Want the epitome of a fantastic GPP play tonight? Look no further than the Braves’ Kevin Gausman. He’s been extremely inconsistent this season with the Orioles, but his switch to the Braves could be exactly what he needs. He goes from Camden Yards, one of the friendliest parks in the league for hitters (where he allowed over 1.6 HR/9) to his first start being at Citi Field (25th in HR park factor, 0.825/game) against a Mets lineup that only has a 0.305 wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Colorado Rockies (+123) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-133)

I expect the masses to avoid Brewers Christian Yelich due to the L/L matchup with Tyler Anderson, but he’s quietly been arguably the hottest hitter in the entire league. Since the All-Star break, Yelich is slashing 0.475/0.492/0.915 with 6 home runs and a major-league leading 54 total bases. He’s a prime GPP target and I would even consider him in cash considering how consistent he’s been.

Kansas City Royals (+210) @ Minnesota Twins (-230)

It’s hard to imagine rostering the Twins in case after the trade deadline when they shipped off Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier, but Logan Morrison clocks in as a fantastic one-off tonight against Burch Smith of the Royals. Morrison is posting a 0.214 ISO and a 41.3% hard-contact% against righties this season and with the Royals bullpen being even worse than Smith, LoMo’s matchup may only get better as the game goes on.

Los Angeles Angels (+218) @ Cleveland Indians (-239)

The Angels come in as the heavy underdogs, which makes me think that they expect Mike Trout to sit to nurse his wrist again, which actually gives Corey Kluber a bit of appeal to me. He’s been a shell of himself since the middle of June, but given his immense strikeout upside (career 27.1% K rate) against a lineup potentially missing the best player in the world, I’m willing to take a risk in a GPP.

Baltimore Orioles (+129) @ Texas Rangers (-140)

The Texas Rangers clock in with the highest IRT on the slate with 5.6 runs against Dylan Bundy of the Baltimore Orioles, who’s given up a 45.7% hard-contact percentage over the last two weeks, leading to a 6.00 ERA in that pan. One player that you NEED to have in your lineups tonight? Rougned Odor. After slumping to a sub-0.150 average over the beginning of the season, Since the All-Star Break, Odor has posted a 0.487 wOBA, a 0.333 ISO and a 60% hard-contact% and somehow still finds himself at under $4,000 on FanDuel.

San Francisco Giants (+123) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-133)

Lefty Andrew Suarez of the Giants has been a dumpster fire these last two weeks, posting a 5.18 SIERA while only striking out 9.8% of the batters he’s faced. I don’t expect it to get better tonight, as Paul Goldschmidt, AJ Pollock, Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte all have ISOs over 0.250 against left-handed pitchers, making the Diamondbacks a great stacking option tonight. If you want to mix it up a bit, John Ryan Murphy has a 0.224 ISO against lefties as well and could come with little to no ownership.

Detroit Tigers (+164) @ Oakland Athletics (-178)

Tonight we have two pitchers that may be pitching over their heads in Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson, but if I had to pick just one to pick on, it’d be Zimmerman. He’s allowed a 54.8% hard-contact% over the last two weeks, making me love the 4-5 combo of Khris Davis and Matt Olson tonight, as both post ISOs over 0.240 and hard-contact percentages north of 48%.

Houston Astros (+122) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-132)

A potential World Series matchup, this may be the first slate of the season in which I am NOT looking at stacking either the Astros or Dodgers. Both Lance McCullers and Kenta Maeda have been great this season, posting SIERAs of 3.65 and 3.50 with K-rates of 26.3% and 28.7% respectively. I also do not expect players to target either pitcher in this matchup either, making them phenomenal GPP plays.

Toronto Blue Jays (+207) @ Seattle Mariners (-227)

We have to wait until the last game of the night, but we finally get to my lock at pitcher; James Paxton. He returned from the DL last start to a tough matchup against the Astros, but he dominated them to the tune of 7 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts. On the season, he’s posted a 2.95 SIERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate, but is still only priced at $9,500 on FanDuel. The Blue Jays are also implied for a slate-low 3.0 runs tonight, solidifying his spot at the top of my pitcher rankings.

 

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