We have a huge slate today, but don’t worry I’ll help you narrow down the pitching options. This is going to be a little different from my normal pitching breakdowns. I’m going to touch on a pitcher from each game and then go into my favorites at each price range.
O’s @ Yankees- The Orioles bats have been hot lately, but they haven’t high quality pitching other than Archer. Tonight I like Tanaka to shut down their bats. I have always said “Tanaka pitches better at home.” That combined with Romine catching is why I am high on him tonight. (Ronnie is no longer catching tonight, but I still like the play) For his career he is 31-14 at home with a 3.37 ERA, .226 baa, and 9.2 K/9 rate.
Cubs @ Pirates- Our resident Cubs fan @cubbablehoosier has said Rizzo and Bryant see the ball extremely well at PNC park, I know Bryant is hurt, but Rizzo in lead off and how the Cubs have been playing with him there takes me off Tallion. The BvP looks bad for the Pirates against Lester, but I remember stacking them last year vs him and they put up a lot of runs in 2 innings. If you want a pitcher from this game I would take Lester, but I will be avoiding pitching here.
Mets @ Nationals- Matz has a great history vs the Nats. He owns a 1-3 record, but has a 2.64 ERA, .24 baa, and 7.7 K/9 vs them. He owns a 0 ERA in his 3 starts at Nationals Park. Roark also has great history vs the Mets, but has not looked the same this season. After looking at some of the numbers Matz would be my guy from this game.
Reds @ Tigers- The Reds just traded Adam Duvall so now that means they finally give Phillip Ervin a fair shot. He is a nice value play, but I’m here to talk about the pitching. The Tigers hitters are much better at home and facing Homer Bailey, but he has some upside since they are hitting just .233 against Right Handed pitchers. However, with the Duvall trade I am liking Matt Boyd tonight. Outside of Suarez the Reds no longer have a major right-handed homerun threat. Boyd at home this season owns a .199 baa, and a 7.3 K/9 rate. He is also limiting damage to right handed bats this season having only allowed 8 homeruns and holding them to a .221 baa.
Angels @ Rays- This game does not have much appeal to me from a pitching standpoint. Yes it’s the Rays, Yes they strikeout a lot, but they hit lefties very well. I don’t even want to touch anyone coming out of the pen from the Rays because they are too unpredictable lately. Skaggs price is also too high in this matchup for me.
Phillies @ Red Sox- In 4 career games vs the Phillies Drew Pomeranz owns a career 3.60 ERA, .191 baa, and 9.9 K/9. This was his in National League days so you have to factor in pitchers hitting, but he has some upside tonight even with how horrible he has been this season. The Red Sox have Arrieta’s number for his career, and after their disappointment last night it might be a good night to stack them. Blake Swihart is catching for Pomeranz which makes me now like a Phillies stack
Marlins @ Braves- The pitcher from this game I am looking at is Kolby Allard. The Marlins do have hitters to hurt lefties, but Allard is a very talked up prospect. In AAA this season he is 6-4 with a 2.8 ERA, .249 baa, and a 7.2 K/9 rate. Allard is only on DK, but at 6,300 I like his upside in this matchup.
Indians @ Twins- Trevor Bauer is starting to be priced out especially at 13K on DK. I am never a Gibson guy, but he could do well in this spot. That being said I am not on either pitcher in this game. Bauer has had huge K upside this season, and he faced the Twins earlier this season and put up 44. This is around 4x times at his current price. I’d rather pay down for one of the plays under 10K.
Royals @ White Sox- Matt Davidson is going to be talked up a lot in this matchup, but you have to remember most of his big games vs Duffy are in KC. Shields has some upside here, but I don’t like either pitcher in this matchup.
Rockies @ Cardinals- Jon Gray is my guy in this matchup. Since being recalled from the minors Gray has pitched 14 innings allowing 2 earned runs, 6 hits, and 12 strikeouts. Ozuna has been heating up, and I could see him hurting Gray tonight, but I like Gray against the rest of that lineup. Flaherty has pitched well at home this season owning a 2-2 record with a 3.08 ERA and .208 baa. I could see the upside of both pitchers in this game, but Gray is and always has been one of my favorite pitchers.
Rangers @ Diamondbacks- Bartolo Colon should get lit up tonight, but my gut tells me he could actually do well tonight. Godley has pitched better lately because of Mathis catching, but he’s still been bad at home and vs righties. The Rangers have the right handed bats in Chirinos, Andrus, and Deshields that could hurt him. If you want risk you can pitch Colon, but I’m not risking it.
Blue Jays @ A’s- After the game Edwin Jackson pitched last night I could see Trevor Cahill being chalky in the cheap pitcher range tonight. Gaviglio would be the pitcher I would want from this game. His first start of the season was against the A’s and he went 5.1 innings allowing 6 hits and striking out 6 batters. I will most likely not being going with either pitcher though.
Astros @ Mariners- Charlie Morton has been very good this season, in July has not looked very good. His only start against Seattle was early this season and he pitched 7 innings allowing 3 hits and striking out 8 hitters, but that was a different Mariners team. Mike Leake also opposes him in that start and allowed 5+ runs, but this Astros team is without Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa so I could see Leake having his way with the free swinging youngsters they called up to replace them.
Brewers @ Dodgers- Wade Miley has pitched great in the month of July pitching 16 innings and allowing 4 earned while striking out 8 batters. The Dodgers will get some talk today as they always do vs lefties but they have also been K’ing a good bit vs lefties so I like the spot for Miley. Walker Buehler was put on the DL around a month ago with a rib injury. Since coming off the DL he has allowed 12 earned over 10.2 innings and striking out 10. With the hot streak Yelich is on I will definitely have a share and could potentially have a brewers stack on the later slates.
Top Price Pitcher:
FD- Tanaka at 9,400 or Jon Gray at 8,300.
DK- Tanaka at 10,300 or Gray at 9,600. If you need the 200 you can go Flaherty at 9,400.
Mid Price Pitcher:
FD- Mike Leake at 7,800 or Steven Matz at 7,500.
DK- Matz at 6,900 or Matt Boyd at 7,300.
FD- Gaviglio at 6,700 or Matt Boyd at 6,500.
DK- Allard at 6,300 or Mike Leake at 5,700.