Welcome to today’s MLB FanCave Full Look, covering the main slate on Fanduel starting at 7:05 PM ET. This full look will target this 13-game slate as a whole. I will highlight my top pitchers, one for cash games and one for GPP, followed by my top stacks, and my favorite value bats that I will be building my lineups around. Before we get to our breakdown, I want to take a minute to drop a little ad for our Discord app chat.
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Jacob deGrom | New York Mets | $11,500
While Chris Sale is the overwhelming AL Cy Young at this point, deGrom may be leading the charge for the NL. Often overshadowed by the lack of support his offense provides, he’s been downright dominant this season, posting a 1.68 ERA backed by his 2.94 SIERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 29.6% Hard-contact% which has led to his elite 0.51 HR/9. The man does not give up hard contact, whatsoever. So, why not roster him against one of the weakest offenses in baseball?
The Padres have long been the scapegoat for teams to attack with pitchers in DFS and it doesn’t change tonight. Against right-handed pitching, the Padres rank dead last in wOBA (0.287) and ISO (0.122) and have the highest strikeout rate in the league (25.8%). This is a spot where I expect deGrom to completely overwhelm the Padres offense and even one run of support should be enough for him to lock down a W. He’s the safest cash play by a wide margin tonight.
Ross Stripling | Los Angeles Dodgers | $9,600
If you’re like myself and like to hunt for a bit of salary relief at the pitcher position, Stripling looks like a safe bet at a reduced salary tonight with ownership likely flocking to deGrom (vs SDP) and Severino (vs TAM).
The young phenom has impressed this season, going 8-2 in his 14 starts while posting a 28.1% strikeout rate and limiting opponents to a 29.9% hard-contact%. While many are quick to doubt young arms and argue that regression is on the horizon, Stripling has the peripherals (2.86 SIERA, 2.79 xFIP) that say otherwise.
He heads to Citizen’s Bank Park to square off with the free-swinging Phillies tonight, who strike out at the second-highest rate in the league against right-handed pitching (25.7%). While they boast a respectable 0.314 wOBA and 0.166 ISO, the fact that Stripling is so effective at limiting hard contact neutralizes their power bats and also gives him arguably the highest K-upside on the slate.
Cleveland Indians | (3B – Jose Ramirez $5,200, SS – Francisco Lindor $4,800, OF – Michael Brantley $3,900, 1B – Yonder Alonso $3,200)
At this point in the seaosn, if the Indians are on the slate, they’re likely the top stack of the night. Oddly enough, a day after putting up 16 runs against the Rangers, they were shut out by Yovani Gallardo, but that shouldn’t lessen the ownership.
They get the opportunity to knock around Trevor Williams of the Pirates tonight, who hasn’t been horrible, but only strikes out 17.1% of the batters he faces while posting a shaky 4.84 SIERA.
He particularly struggles against left-handed batters (11.4% K-rate, 5.39 xFIP) which bodes well for the switch hitting duo of Franciso Lindor and Jose Ramirez, two of the hottest hitting players on the planet. I expect both of those players to carry significant ownership, and mixing in Yonder Alonso (expected to be chalk) and Michael Brantley rounds out the left-handed stack that could put up absolute numbers tonight.
Los Angeles Angels | (OF – Mike Trout $4,500, OF – Justin Upton $3,400, 2B – Ian Kinsler $2,900, OF – Shohei Ohtani $2,900)
I expect the Indians to garner most of the attention tonight, which makes me like the Angels even more assuming they come with depressed ownership and deflated prices.
Lucas Giolito has been a mess this season, posting a 6.18 ERA, 13.6% strikeout rate, and a 5.58 SIERA. If you think that’s bad, you should see his numbers against left-handed hitting. He’s walked more lefties than he’s struck out (-5.4% K-BB%) and allowed 1.41 HR/9 innings (1.55 to RHB).
Virtually everyone in this lineup is viable tonight, but the four power hitters in the top-half of the lineup stick out to me the most, as all four (Trout (0.294), Upton (0.222), Ohtani (0.305) and Kinsler (0.176)) all have elite ISOs against right-handed pitching and come at extremely reasonable prices.
Top Value Bats:
3B | Adrian Beltre | Texas Rangers | $2,500
A future Hall of Famer priced this low with the platoon advantage? Yes, please! While the simple fact that Beltre will be a first-ballot HOFer isn’t enough to roster him, his career 0.381 wOBA and 0.216 ISO against left-handed pitching might be.
Not enough yet? His counterpart, Brett Anderson, is allowing a 34.4% hard-contact% this season while only striking out 10.8% of the batters he’s faced.
C | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | $2,900
Perez has had quite a down year by his standards, but he comes in to tonight in a great spot against Francisco Liriano, who is surrendering 1.37 HR/9 this season and has shown extreme issues with his command. Perez is a great way to get exposure to a Royals offense that should post a crooked number, but may be too risky to stack.
OF | Chad Pinder | Oakland Athletics | $2,500
Ah, a DFS industry favorite. Pinder is a viable value play whenever he faces off against a lefty thanks to his 0.372 wOBA and 0.204 ISO (both elite) against lefties, and his opponent, Cole Hamels, has gotten crushed recently.
Hamels has surrendered 18 runs in his last 17 innings pitched and there’s a chance his rough stretch to continue tonight against a respectable Oakland offense with heat and humidity that won’t be doing him any favors.
1B | Wilmer Flores | New York Mets | $2,500
My final value play is yet again another player that I tend to only target when he’s facing a lefty.
Flores has been quiet this season against opposite-hand pitching (surprising 0.115 ISO), but I’m not letting that sway me from his career 0.338 wOBA and 0.225 ISO against left-handed pitching. Eric Lauer is also nothing special on the mound this season, carrying a 4.87 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP into this contest.
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