MLB FANCAVE FULL LOOK (FANDUEL): 7/13/18
Welcome to today’s MLB FanCave Full Look, covering the main slate on Fanduel starting at 6:05 CST. This full look will target this full 15-game slate as a whole. I will highlight my top pitchers, one for cash games and one for GPP, followed by my top stacks, and my favorite value bats that I will be building my lineups around. Before we get to our breakdown, I want to take a minute to drop a little ad here for our Discord app chat.
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Today looks to be almost the opposite of yesterday. Instead of having five or six pitchers in play, we have zero that I feel 100% comfortable with. Due to FanDuel’s egregious pricing errors all over the board on the hitter side, pitcher will be our most important decision in cash games, as they will likely be the difference. In GPP’s it might not be a bad idea to punt at pitcher with a certain lefty, and stacking up Coors, underpriced Indians, or Dodgers lefties, who once again are in a great match-up. Without further delay, let’s break it down.
Jake Odorizzi – Minnesota Twins $7,200 / Nathan Eovaldi Tampa Bay Rays $7,700
I’m charting two pitchers here today, mostly because I know I will be choosing one of them, but I am just not quite sure which one yet. It will come down to who I think will win the game, and all data says this could go either way. The Vegas over/under sits at 8.5 with both teams projected to score 4.3 runs. At virtually a pick-em, and so much chalk to eat in cash games, getting this one right could be the difference.
Right now, I could see the chalk cash pitcher being Dallas Keuchel against Detroit, or the fresh off of the DL Noah Syndergaard. Both show too many signs of risk here to me, and neither are really in a favorable spot. While the Tigers lineup doesn’t boast too many big names, they crush lefties. I want no part of Keuchel tonight. And as far as Thor goes, he wasn’t exactly great before the DL stint, and I will not pay that price until I see him pitch a couple times.
Back to Odorizzi and Eovaldi. What it comes down to, is Eovaldi has the K upside, and should be able to strike out between seven and nine batters. However, Odorizzi has more than a few things going his way here. First is the obvious revenge narrative. He came up with the Rays in 2013, and was a fixture in their rotation until he ended up signing a one-year deal with Minnesota this offseason.
Another thing going his way, is the fact that he has had three nice starts in a row, against similar competition. In those three starts, he has averaged just over 40 FDP per start, and that would be plenty at this price tag. I am firing up Odorizzi in cash games tonight, at what I think will be an insanely low ownership.
Wei-Yin Chen – Miami Marlins – $6,000
My first thought was the same as yours. Did he just go there? Look, I am a sucker for punting pitchers on slates like this where there are just too many good hitters in great spots. I know you are still thinking there is no chance you are rostering Chen, as right-handed hitters have destroyed him basically his whole career but hear me out.
We don’t have a lot of options today down here around $6K, and I want someone in this range for tournaments to pay for these bats. I flirted with the idea of Antonio Senzatela at, who fellow analyst @mbsportsguru98 likes a lot today. He has been good at home, but home is still Coors Field, so I am gonna pass. It could definitely end up a great play, but I’ll take my chance with Chen instead.
I guess you want that reasoning now? Chen has some pretty crazy home/road splits. He has been absolutley brutal on the road, with an ERA over 10 in 32.2 innings. At home however, he seems to be a very different pitcher. He has allowed just 24 hits at home in 33.1 innings, while posting a spectacular 1.89 ERA. This is risky AF no doubt, as the Phillies right-handed bats could absolutely light him up here. But six innings with a win and a quality start is around 35 FDP with five strikeouts or so, and I will take that here.
Cleveland Indians – (SS – Francisco Lindor $4,500, 3B – Jose Ramirez $4,600, OF – Michael Brantley $3,800, OF – Greg Allen $2,200)
My top stack of the day geared towards GPP is the vastly underpriced Indians. JRam and Lindor remain on fire and are easily the second best duo in the league behind Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Brantley has strung together a couple of good games in a row, and has also seen his salary decrease a bit. Allen offers a great source of salary relief to spend up on other bats, and has speed upside from the bottom of the lineup. If he gets on base, he is likely to score, cosidering this top of the Tribe lineup.
Now back to this horrendous pricing today. Did Fanduel just figure OK the pitching is bad let’s all pick any hitters we want? All of these Indians bats have gone down in salary, and while they face the Yankees at home, this is a mystery to me. Domingo German isn’t exactly the Yankees best arm. He has been pretty awful against lefties, and Cleveland is loaded with them. While the BA allowed is down there for German at .234, the SLG and the wOBA show that lefties hit him hard and get on base. I think the Indians are in a great spot to get some runs early, which is important, because the bullpen is much better than German.
Colorado Rockies – (OF – Charlie Blackmon $4,200, 3B – Nolan Arenado $4,700, SS – Trevor Story $4,300, OF – Carlos Gonzalez $3,400)
So yeah this pricing. Whatever the pricing algorithim at the FanDuel HQ drank last night I’ll take a double since it’s Friday. Gonzalez is set to be mega chalk here at this price. It is almost like they priced it for SafeCo? I don’t know, either way I think it’s foolish not to have some shares here against former Rockie Christian Bergman, who is recently up from AAA. Felix Hernandez isn’t 100%, and James Paxton has landed on the DL.
The ownership leverage play here in my opinion, is to pay up for Ian Desmond at a much thinner position than outfield, and fade CarGo. In all honesty, I like Rangers OF Shin-Soo Choo a lot more than Gonzalez at $100 less. I would say it is up to whether or not you need that $400 in salary elsewhere though, as there are plenty of options tonight.
Top Value Plays:
1B – Greg Bird – New York Yankees – $3,100
The Bird Man looks to be coming around a little bit, as he has had three straight nice FDP games, homering twice and doubling in that span. Tonight the Yankees face the Indians at Progressive Field in what could be a playoff preview. Young right-hander Shane Bieber will be on the hill for the Tribe, and if there is one thing he has not done well this year, it is get lefties out. I love the price tags on Bird and Brett Gardner here in this match-up, and SS Didi Gregorius also looks to be in play if you want to lefty stack.
2B – Carlos Asuaje – San Diego Padres – $2,100
Gonna keep this one real simple. Dirt cheap punt at an awful position today where I only like Max Muncy. For a guy only hitting .212 as a part-time player, let me tell you why I am locking him in as my top value play today. He has now started back-to-back games, batting 2nd in each game, and recording a hit in each game. The Dads will face Tyler Chatwood tonight, and he has had a real hard time with lefties this season. His opponent OBP vs. lefties is a massive .429, so pretty much all of these cheap Padres lefties can be used for value. This will be a great point of attack for the late slate on FanDuel!
OF – Shin-Soo Choo – Texas Rangers – $3,300
OK last time, but seriously??? Choo is having a ridiculous season and I would probably pass on him if he was priced where he should be, but you just can’t pass this up at just $3,300. Choo will face Orioles gas can Alex Cobb in Baltimore, who has been a disaster free agent signing for the Birds. Choo is my pick to leave the yard today, and I am sure you will hear about it on Twitter when he does.
OF – Andrew Toles – Los Angeles Dodgers – $2,000
Talked about Toles yesterday at the minimum price in our Dodgers stack. He ended up batting 6th which was a nice surprise, as I expected him down in the eight hole again. Toles was able to pay off his minimum price tag, going 1-for-4 with an RBI and a run for 9.7 FDP. The Dodgers lefties are in a good spot again here against Angels right-hander Felix Pena, and Toles look like a great source of value once again.
(Honorable Mention: 1B – John Hicks $2,600, OF – Aaron Altherr $2,000, 3B – Tim Beckham $2,500, OF – Sam Travis $2,000)
That’s it for today. Good luck in your contests! Give me a follow https://twitter.com/JuanBondDFS and let me know if I sucked or won you some money!