MLB FanCave Full Look (Fanduel): 7/3/2018
Welcome to today’s MLB FanCave Full Look, covering the main 12-game slate on FanDuel starting at 7:05 PM EST. This full look will target the slate as a whole. I am filling in for Chris today, but I will highlight my top pitchers, one for cash games and one for GPP, followed by my top stacks, and my favorite value bats that I will be building my lineups around.
Shane Bieber – Cleveland Indians – $8,200
Through his first four starts in the MLB, it’s quickly become apparent that Bieber is a name to pay attention to in DFS and with an underwhelming Kershaw and an over-priced Grienke on the mound, I expect the masses to flock to him.
Through his first four starts, Bieber has racked up a 26.2% K-rate and paired it with a 3.02 SIERA, a 3.04 xFIP and a 12.3% swinging strike rate, showing that his production is legit, The one area of concern I have is his 44.3% hard-contact rating, but that won’t deter me against a team like the Royals, who rank dead last in both wOBA (0.286) and ISO (0.122) against right-handed pitching.
As long as you temper your expectations regarding the strikeout upside (KC only Ks at a 19.2% rate), you should be in for a pleasant night with Bieber, while also affording yourself some stud batters.
Zach Eflin – Philadelphia Phillies – $9,100
While I expect many people to see the top of the pitching options and gravitate towards Bieber, I expect 95% of people to skip right over Eflin, making him my favorite tournament target at the position.
Contrary to last season, Eflin has been phenomenal this season and has the peripherals to support it, rocking a 24.5% K-rate, a 3.67 SIERA, 3.74 xFIP and holding hitters to a lowly 26.9% hard-contact rating. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in his last 5 starts (all resulting in wins) and gets to take on a Baltimore team who ranks 27th in wOBA and has the 6th highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
The fact that this game in NOT in Camden Yards against the Orioles is the cherry on top to what I expect to be a very low-owned GPP play who is also in a great spot for a win against Alex Cobb, who I will touch on soon.
Top Stacks: *Coors not included
Cleveland Indians – (1B – Edwin Encarnacion $4,100, 3B – Jose Ramirez $4,800, SS – Francisco Lindor $4,700, OF – Brandon Guyer $2,100)
While the Indians check in for the second consecutive day as our top stack, it will cost you a pretty penny.
The last time these same Indians squared off with left-hander Danny Duffy, they tagged him for 9 earned runs in only 3.1 innings of work and I expect a similar result here. All of Lindor, Ramirez and Guyer own a +0.300 wOBA vs LHP (Encarnacion is at 0.295) and the former three also have ISOs over 0.200 against left-handed pitching.
This is one of, if not the most dangerous and explosive offense in baseball and these players provide you with the power/speed combo to win all of your cash games and rank you atop the GPPs should they perform, and you do not want to miss out when they do.
Houston Astros – (2B – Jose Altuve $4,300, 3B – Alex Bregman $4,500, SS – Marwin Gonzalez $2,300, OF – George Springer $3,700)
Perhaps another team capable of being the most explosive offense in baseball, the Houston Astros clock in as another great stack against Austin Bibens-Dirkx of the Rangers.
Bibens-Dirkx has been frustrating to stack against (1 ER over last 11.2 IP), but his peripheral stats indicate a heaping load of regression on the horizon, as he boasts a 45.8% hard contact rating with an xFIP over a point and a half higher than his actual FIP.
I’m looking towards Alex Bregman to be the core of my stack, as he’s posted 13 hits and 10 RBIs in his last 7 games, and will compliment him with the usual suspects in Altuve and Springer (power/speed upsides) and the value in Marwin.
Top Value Plays:
2B – Yoan Moncada – Chicago White Sox – $2,900
Moncada is sputtering this season to say the least, but it’s hard for me to pass up on such an explosive player as such a reasonable price in a smash spot. Anthony DeSclafani has surrendered 1.88 HR/9 to lefties this season and 1.9 HR/9 overall, while Moncada has slugged all 10 of his home runs against right-handed pitching. The White Sox make for a sneaky mini-stack that saves you salary, as you can see below as well.
OF – Avisail Garcia – Chicago White Sox – $2,900
To echo Chris’ blurb in yesterday’s article, Avi is red hot and added on another pair of hits last night, one of which was a home run. Hitting in Great American Ballpark is reason enough to lock a hitter in, but when you pair that with an opposing pitcher (Anthony DeSclafani) who is surrendering 1.9 HR/9 and a 44% hard-contact rating? Sign me up.
3B – Maikel Franco – Philadelphia Phillies – $2,600
He’s began to lose hold of the starting gig at 3B, but after sitting for two games, I am confident that Franco will find himself back in the lineup. He’s not the sexiest play, but if weather permits, I want some Phillies exposure against Alex Cobb, who has been god awful. He’s posted a 5.13 xFIP, 0.352 BABIP and has surrendered 1.69 HR/9, catering perfectly to a power-hitter like Franco.
OF – Rajai Davis – Cleveland Indians – $2,200
One player I left out of my Indians blurb but one that always seems to come through for me is Davis. He should find his way into the lineup on a regular basis now with Chisenhall on the DL and brings a power/speed combo that is unheard of for his age. He posted a 3-hit and 3-RBI game last night and with Danny Duffy on the mound tonight, he could end up repeating his success.
Other Options: Chad Pinder ($2,500), Tim Beckham ($2,300)