World Cup DFS Breakdown – 6/27/18

Forwards

Neymar (Brazil vs. Serbia, $13,000) – Neymar has one of the highest floors on this slate with his ability to accumulate peripheral stats, especially shots on goal (5 points each on FD).  He also has one of the highest ceilings on this slate with his explosive goal upside.  Brazil still needs at least a draw to advance to the knockout stage, so this game still means a lot to them.  Serbia’s defense did not look good in their last game giving up two goals to Switzerland.  Neymar’s high floor and high ceiling make him my top play across the slate.

Marco Reus (Germany vs. South Korea, $10,000) – After not starting Germany’s first World Cup game, Reus entered into their starting squad for Mesut Ozil and was extremely productive.  He scored a goal and added an assist on his way to a 30 FDP game.  Reus was one of Germany’s best attacking weapons, and in another do-or-die game for Germany, he could repeat this performance.  South Korea’s defense was overly physical against Mexico, and since this game is still meaningful for them, I expect them to play the same exact way and make it hard on Reus and company.  Regardless, Reus is finally starting to look like his old self before he got hurt, and his upside makes him one of my top GPP pivots off Neymar.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Brazil vs. Serbia, $9,000) – Mitrovic is a good FWD2 to pair with Neymar/Reus.  He has 2 shots on goal in each of Serbia’s first two games, and he was able to get on the scoresheet is Serbia’s last match against Switzerland.  Serbia will need a win to advance (although they can still advance on a draw + some help), so Mitrovic should be busy.  Brazil hasn’t allowed opposing forwards much room to work, but Serbia might be the best team they’ll face in the group stage.  Mitrovic is a good play in GPPs as a goal-dependent forward.

Son Heung-Min (Germany vs. South Korea, $8,000) – There are some viable GPP forward plays on this all-day slate starting with Son.  He had a monster game against Mexico ending with 38.3 FDP.  It’s unlikely that he gets to that mark again with Germany likely controlling possession.  However, Germany struggled to contain Mexico’s counter attack, so Son and other Korean attackers could break them down as well.  Son is South Korea’s best attacker and will have to be on his A game if they wish to advance.

Midfielders

Coutinho (Brazil vs. Serbia, $11,500) – Coutinho has been remarkable for Brazil this tournament with 38.7 FDP on average.  He has a goal in each game so far to go along with 5 shots on goal.  If you’re fading Neymar, it should be to get Coutinho.  Pairing both together could be a winning GPP move with Brazil still needing a positive result to advance.  Serbia’s defense did not show well against Switzerland, so I expect Brazil to be several good opportunities.

Xherdan Shaqiri (Costa Rica vs. Switzerland $9,500) – After his outstanding performance against Serbia, Shaqiri earns a spot as one of my favorite midfielders on the slate.  He scored a masterful late goal that gave his team the win and put them in position to qualify for the next round.  Costa Rica has struggled in this tournament.  They’ve already been mathematically eliminated and have given up 3 goals and 33 shots (13 on target).  This is by far the best matchup for Swiss attackers, making Shaqiri a good play in all formats.  If you’re going to go all in on Switzerland, Steven Zuber ($8,500) would be the next midfielder to consider, but he’s a little expensive for my liking.

Ki Sung-yeung (Germany vs. South Korea, $7,500) – On all slates I usually try to find the mid-priced midfielders with safe floors.  On this slate, Ki Sung-yeung is that person.  The South Korean captain will be very important if they have any hope at qualifying.  He moves all over the field which means lots of peripherals stats.  Germany is a solid matchup for him to get peripheral stats as well.  His floor is solid, so he is someone I want to use in cash games, but he also has some GPP appeal as well.

Defenders

Marcelo (Brazil vs. Serbia, $6,500) – Marcelo’s price has dropped some since the start of the World Cup, and that’s something I want to take advantage of in this game.  Despite being a defender, he’s a main piece of Brazil’s attack just like he is with Real Madrid.  He hasn’t had any great games yet in the World Cup, so I am hoping he busts out in a big way against Serbia.  A clean sheet bonus is also possible.  He’s my top GPP defender.

Joshua Kimmich (Germany vs. South, $6,500) – Close behind Marcelo as my top defender, is German wing back Joshua Kimmich.  Kimmich is a very similar to player to Marcelo as a main piece of Germany’s attack form the defense.  Kimmich has a lot of offensive upside especially with crosses (DraftKings), and he should also be able to collect many peripherals with his activity on both ends of the field.  Jonas Hector ($5,000) could be a sneaky option as Germany’s other wing back.

Mikael Lustig (Sweden vs. Mexico, $5,000) – As far as mid-priced defenders go, there usually is not a whole lot of upside so I am just looking for strong floors.  Lustig has shown a good ability to get clearances, which should come in handy against a team like Mexico.  Sweden’s defense has been rock solid so far in the tournament, so a clean sheet is also possible if Mexico falters in their attacking third.  Lustig is a good salary-saver at defender without going all the way to the bottom.

Giancarlo Gonzalez (Costa Rica vs. Switzerland, $4,500) – There is a major lack of deep value at defender based on players I am expecting to start.  Gonzalez is about as low as I would want to go safely unless there is something unexpected.  Gonzalez’s fantasy value lives off of clearances, and with Switzerland likely pressing hard, there should be many clearances for him to make.  While a clean sheet is not likely, it’s still possibly since Switzerland is not a great attacking team.  He’s a viable option in all formats for salary relief.

Goalkeepers

Guillermo Ochoa (Sweden vs. Mexico, $6,000) – Guillermo Ochoa continues making tons of saves with the way Mexico plays on defense, which is good for his fantasy value.  What’s also good in this game is Sweden’s lack of quality attackers.  Mexico needs a result to advance so they will have to be tight at the back, so I like Ochoa to get a clean sheet and a win as well.  However, Ochoa will be the chalk on this slate with his game logs.

Yann Sommer (Costa Rica vs. Switzerland, $5,000) – Sommer is more of a safer GK option on the slate compared to the others.  Costa Rica hasn’t scored a goal in this tournament and I don’t think they will against the tough Swiss defense.  A win and a clean sheet are likely here, but his save upside is limited.

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