DraftKings “Lowball” Breakdown: 6/5/18

So DK decided to bring back their Lowball slate tonight. For those who haven’t played it before Lowball is where the lowest score wins, so when you’re picking pitchers you want the ones who get lit up, and when picking hitters you want the ones who will strikeout. So let’s dig in:

Tier 1:

This Tier features Joe Musgrove, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Kyle Hendricks, and Kyle Freeland. Some tough picking here tonight. Musgrove and Stripling face each other and both have been dominant, but I think Striplings streak of dominance comes to an end. Freeland is probably the chalk play at this tier. My pitchers I would play on this tier not in any order are Sean Manaea, Kyle Freeland, and Ross Stripling.

Tier 2:

The pitchers on this tier are Steven Wright, Artie Lewicki, Marco Estrada, Matt Moore, Jason Vargas, and Alex Cobb. Cobb has not looked right at all this season, but he has good history against the Mets. Jason Vargas has been surprising lately and he has good history vs the Orioles. Lewicki is probably the chalk here, but I’m not sure he goes enough innings to be viable here for me. Matt Moore and Marco Estrada would probably become the chalk options if people start thinking the same way I am, so that leaves Steven Wright. Fellow analyst @CubbableHoosier posted some stats this morning in the discord chat, and over the last two seasons the Tigers have crushed knuckleball pitchers. Now remember it’s a very small sample because there are not many knuckleball pitchers left in the game, but I think for gpp Wright is my guy here.

Tier 3:

This tier is our first tier of hitters and it features some big names. Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, and Jose Altuve. After his 0-9 with 8 K performance yesterday I could see Aaron Judge being the chalk at his tier, but I’m not going there. Jose Altuve is my guy for this tier. Altuve is hitting just .254 at home and .250 against lefties. He also doesn’t have very good bvp against James Paxton. All of this points to Altuve being my LowBall guy here.

Tier 4:

In this tier of hitters we have Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, Eugenio Suarez, Nolan Arenado, and Giancarlo Stanton. Brantley is in a good spot so I won’t be picking him here. Blackmon and Nolan both face a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. Suarez facing a lefty if he’s hitting 2nd or 5th he’s usually a lock for me. So I guess that leaves Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton just hit a homerun yesterday and had another good matchup today so I could see people avoiding him, but I will not be. Stanton or Nolan are my choices at this tier, but I don’t expect this tier to be very low scoring.

Tier 5:

This tier features Scooter Gennett, Gleyber Torres, Kris Bryant, Brett Gardner, Edwin Encarmacion, and Khris Davis. Scooter is facing a lefty but I still like his matchup. Gleyber and Gardner get a good matchup like the other Yankees. Bryant faces Eflin and I could see him having a big game against my Phils tonight. Edwin Encarnacion is coming off a 2 homerun game and I could see him going on a hot streak here. My lowball is Khris Davis. Davis has a .184 average, 19 strikeouts, and only 9 hits in 49 at bats against lefties this season.

Tier 6:

This tier features Andrew Benintendi, Tommy Pham, Anthony Rizzo, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Miguel Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu, and Joey Votto. Benintendi gets what looks like a bullpen game for the tigers, so he should do well. Trea Turner and Anthony Rizzo both have good matchups, but Turner only because of his steal upside. Miggy has crushed knuckleballers in his career. Votto is being Votto I like him tonight even though it’ll be lefty/lefty. DJL gets the same matchup as Nolan and Blackmon. My lowball pick here would be Taylor or Tommy Pham. I’m leaning Pham because righties are only hitting .232 against Urena.

Tier 7:

This tier features Austin Meadows, Javy Baez, Matt Kemp, Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, Christian Yelich, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa. Correa has some good BvP against Paxton. Meadows Javy and Kemp all have good matchups tonight so I will be staying away from them. Xander has the same situation as Benintendi. So that leaves us with Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, and Christian Yelich. My pick here is between Jean Segura and Christian Yelich. Yelich faces Corey Kluber and Segura faces Dallas Kuechel. Segura hits lefties well, but Kuechel looks like he’s finally turning his season around. However Yelich could also hit even the best of pitchers so this tier could any direction.

Tier 8:

The 8th and Final Tier features Brandon Nimmo, Yasiel Puig, Starling Marte, Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto, Cesar Hernandez, Jed Lowrie, and Joey Gallo. Joey Gallo should be the chalk here and for good reason. He does not know how to hit left handed pitching well, and is still a strikeout machine. For gpp I like Cesar Hernandez and Yasiel Puig. I could see Kyle Hendricks doing vs my Phils tonight, and Yasiel Puig has a matchup against Joe Mugrove. Musgrove has shown why he was the key piece in the Gerrit Cole trade, and he could dominate Puig tonight.

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