FanCave Favorites (MLB) 5/15/18: Paying Down at Pitcher may take you to the Top

On today’s main slate, we have a massive 14-game slate, but not a whole lot of clarity. This, in large part, is because there is no clear-cut ace with an enticing matchup. Yes, Gerrit Cole has been flat out dominant, but a date with Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and the Angels gives some reason for doubt.


In this plays of the day article, I will briefly highlight my top pitcher, my core stack and my favorite one-off bats that I will be building my lineups around.

Let’s get to it!

Pitcher: Tyler Mahle | $7,400

You’d think that with Gerrit Cole and Noah Syndergaard on the slate that looking below the top tier isn’t worth your time in cash – wrong.

While I am not inclined to pay that price for Cole in this matchup and can’t get on board with Thor’s inconsistencies for his price, Mahle checks in as my favorite option under one condition. Tucker Barnhart must be catching.

In his brief career, he’s pitched 38 innings with Barnhart, posting stellar numbers. He’s posted a 9.23 K/9 rate (24% K rate), a 0.221 BABIP and limited opponents to a 0.221/0.319/0.379 slash line…impressive stuff huh?

On top of that, he gets a MASSIVE park upgrade, going from Great American Ballpark to AT&T Park in San Francisco against a lineup that currently ranks 23rd in wOBA (0.308), 25th in ISO (0.141) and have the 5th highest K-rate (25.5%) against right-handed pitchers.

I expect him to be rather low owned (5-10% MAX) in cash, but he’s my top point-per-dollar pitcher on the slate and my favorite cash play.

Other options: Gerrit Cole (highest ceiling, but tough matchup), Zack Greinke, Nick Pivetta GPP)


Core Stack: Philadelphia Phillies

While pitching is rather ambiguous on this slate, so is stacking batters. There are a handful of spots, but the gas-cans pitch against unattractive offenses, and the attractive offenses are taking on the better pitchers.

My favorite stack, one that may go a bit overlooked, is the Philadelphia Phillies taking on RHP Andrew Cashner. While he is never one to get obliterated (very frustrating for DFS players), Cashner is still allowing 2.01 HR/9, 4.23 BB/9 and a career-worst 41.8% fly ball rate. On top of that, his 4.89 xFIP indicates some regression heading his way.

While the weather is a bit of a concern (60-80% chance of thunderstorms between 7pm and 11pm), the temperature remains in the upper-80s in Camden Yards and should be a launchpad should this game play.

The core of my stack will center around the lefties and power hitters:

*Metrics vs RHP are below

  • $3,900 | Carlos Santana: 0.337 wOBA // 0.260 ISO // 34.5% HC
  • $3,800 | Odubel Herrera: 0.437 wOBA // 0.189 ISO // 26.3% HC
  • $3,900 | Rhys Hoskins: 0.373 wOBA // 0.229 ISO // 37.1% HC

The 3-man stack of Santana-Herrera-Hoskins will be my core, and to complete the stack I will likely add in Maikel Franco ($3,400) and/or Cesar Hernandez ($3,800) for the full Phillies stack.

Other stacks: CLE (cash/GPP), LAD (cash), DET (GPP)


Top One-Offs:

Kike Hernandez | $2,400 – lefty killer (0.366 wOBA / 0.238 ISO) against a regressing veteran for a cheap price.

Wilmer Flores | $2,600 – Career lefty-masher (0.340 wOBA / 0.232 ISO) and a career 4-12 off of Jaime Garcia with 2 home runs.

Eugenio Suarez |$4,000 – Ty Blach allows a 0.327 wOBA vs RHB and Suarez crushes lefties to the tune of a 0.583 wOBA and 0.500 ISO. He comes in as my #DFSHRCall of the night.

Anthony Rizzo | $4,600 – He’s recorded 7 hits in his last 6 games and Foltynewicz allows a career 0.304 wOBA against lefties.

Giancarlo Stanton | $4,900 – Stanton against a lefty, you know the drill.

 

 

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