James Paxton($8,500 FD)- James Paxton is an elite pitcher and tonight he gets a matchup against the Astros. Now normally the Astros are not a team to start pitchers against, but they are looking to have a serious World Series hangover, and they just almost got no hit by the Bartolo Colon. Yes you read that correctly Bartolo Colon almost no hit the Astros. Paxton’s numbers this season are not the best, but his home splits for his career are a 16-12 record, 3.01 ERA, .235 baa, and an 8.9 K/9 rate. His career numbers vs the Astros are almost as good. In his career against the Astros Paxton holds a 3-3 record, 3.38 ERA, .234 baa, and an 8.5 K/9 rate. If you look at the BvP for the Astros with somewhat good numbers vs Paxton are Correa (.375 average), Bregman (.333 average), and Springer (2 homeruns). However, all I am not worried about the Astros bats tonight. Paxton is cash safe tonight and is at a discount compared to Jacob Degrom.
Jacob Degrom($9,400 FD)- Jacob Degrom’s home/road splits are pretty insane. At home he carries a career 23-16 record, 2.32 ERA, .213 baa, and a 10.5 K/9. His career numbers against the Nationals are almost as good. Degrom hold’s a career 6-4 record, 2.68 ERA, .213 baa, and an 11 K/9 rate. The only batter with BvP to worry about just so happens to be one of the hottest hitters in the game currently, Bryce Harper (.346 average and 1 homerun). Degrom is the chalk cash option tonight.
Aaron Nola($8,800 FD)- Nola just had this matchup on Opening Day, and I think it will be a lot of the same for him… other than being pulled with 68 pitches thrown. On Opening Day Nola pitched 5.1 innings allowing 3 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and striking out 3 batters. In his career against the Braves Nola owns a 5-1 record, 1.93 ERA, .233 baa, and a 7.0 K/9 rate. In the park that Freddie built (SunTrust Park) Nola owns a career 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA, .174 baa, and 6.1 K/9 rate. Nola is a safe gpp play tonight and his arm is stretched out now so we shouldn’t have to worry about Gabe Kaplar pulling him after 68 pitches again.
Luis Castillo($7,00 FD)- Last season in away games Castillo held a 2-3 record, 2.84 ERA, .222 baa, and a 9.9 K/9 rate. This season Castillo is not off to as good of a start as we had all hoped, but he is better away again this season, and he gets to face a free swinging Brewers team who could potentially be without one of their big left handed bats in Eric Thames. In his career vs the Brewers he holds a 1-0 record, 1.98 ERA, .188 baa, and a staggering 12.5 K/9 rate. He faced them both times in Cincinnati where his numbers are a worse, so I am expecting Castillo to finally break out of his slump he has started the season in. Castillo is a low owned gpp play who should be able to crush value at a cheap price tonight.