What’s up everyone. As opposed to my usual pitching breakdown, I’m going to write up a FanCave Favorites article since I am crunched for time.
In this article I want to highlight both my favorite pitcher on the slate as well as my favorite stack. This will give you a great foundation to build your cash lineups for the slate.
Pitcher – Robbie Ray ($9,600)
After a disappointing opener against the Rockies, I expect Robbie Ray to rebound in very strong fashion tonight. 2017 was a tale of two Rays for the young lefty, as his home/road splits may have been the most drastic in baseball, as shown below:
He was a borderline Cy Young pitcher if you’re just looking at road games last season.
The current Cardinals lineup has also tagged Ray a bit, batting a career 0.464 with a 0.524 wOBA, but there’s little to no safety outside of Ray at the pitching position. If he can regain form and build on his 34.8% K-rate and 0.250 wOBA allowed on the road last season, he should be in for a very nice game.
Stack – New York Yankees
Stacking against Andrew Cashner last season was arguably the most frustrating thing in DFS. You saw his 4.7 K/9 and jump all over it, only for your stack to score a combined 2 runs over 8 innings.
This year? That may not be the case. If his opening start is any indication, Cashner has some regression coming his way and it could hit him HARD.
Last start against the Twins, he surrendered 4 earned runs in 5 innings while walking 2 and striking out 5. The red flag? He gave up a TON of home runs, to give him a 5.40 HR/9 rate and a 40% hard-contact%. These are numbers we can definitely work with tonight with the Bronx Bombers.
My ideal stack (with 2018 numbers and projected batting spot)
- (2) Aaron Judge ($4,000) – 0.409 wOBA / 0.190 ISO / 30.8% hard-contact%
- (3) Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500) – 0.428 wOBA / 0.478 ISO / 63.6% hard-contact%
- (5) Gary Sanchez ($3,100) – 0.146 wOBA / 0.174 ISO / 22.2% hard-contact%
- (9) Tyler Austin ($2,900) – 0.487 wOBA / 0.583 ISO / 50.0% hard-contact%
This won’t be the cheapest stack, but you can’t argue with it. Judge‘s ISO and HC% will level out to more elite levels and this is a perfect matchup for that to begin to happen. Stanton has absolutely smashed the ball this season and the fact that Cashner struggles with missing bats neutralizes Stanton’s biggest weakness.
Sanchez has been abysmal and I won’t deny that, but he has two things working for him. He’s a reverse-splits hitter (Cashner is a RHP) and he’s streaky. He came up with a HR last game and that could be the beginning of his breakout. Austin, like Stanton, has been tearing the cover off of the ball and is way too cheap, regardless of his spot in the batting order.
This stack is going to be chalky, but if you find yourself on the wrong side of a Yankees crooked number, your night could come to an early end.