4/1 MLB PITCHING BREAKDOWN: How Faria willing to go?

High Tier

 

Luke Weaver ($7,800 FD/ $8,000 DK)- 

Weaver has been one of the most talked about Cardinals prospects the last two years, and in 2017 he finally got the chance to show he can succeed at the highest level. Weaver posted a 7-2 record, 3.88 ERA, .254 baa, and 10.74 K/9 over 60.1 innings last season. He posted a 4-0 record, 2.77 ERA, .235 baa, and 12.1 K/9 rate on the road. Over their two games this season the Mets have struckout a total of 13 times. Weaver has been known to have elite movement on his pitches and has the huge K upside that we look for in cash.

Jake Faria ($6,400 FD/ $7,500 DK)- 

Faria burst onto the scene in June and showed everyone why he was one of the Rays top pitching prospects. In 14 starts totaling 86.2 innings Faria posted a 5-4 record, 3.43 ERA, .225 baa, and 8.72 K/9. These are very solid numbers for a rookie campaign, and Faria was even more solid at home. At Tropicana Field Faria posted a 3-2 record, 3.10 ERA, .203 baa, and 8.0 K/9. If you combine his home dominance with his career numbers vs the Red Sox (1 start, but 9 innings pitched. 4 hits allowed. 3 strikeouts. So a 1.00 ERA, .143 baa, and 3.0 K/9) I would say Faria is cash safe and with his cheap price you can fit him and the Yankees bats against the hurt Marcus Stroman.

 


Mid Tier

Jose Berrios ($7,700 FD/ $9,000 DK)-

In 2017 Berrios had a huge bounce back from his short rookie campaign in 2016. He posted a 14-8 record, 3.89 ERA, .239 baa, and 8.59 K/9. His baa is really good, so his high ERA could be because of the 15 homeruns and 28 doubles he allowed. Berrios was better at home, and the opposing Orioles batters have a .289 average with 4 homeruns in 45 at bats against Berrios. Berrios showed flashes of being the dominant pitcher many expect him to be, but is still way to volatile to trust in cash. When his command is good he is one of the best pitchers in the game, but when it’s off wow is he scary. I would reserve Berrios for GPP’s.

Kevin Gausman ($7,300 FD/ $6,900 DK)-

On the other side of this game is Kevin Gausman. If you read my season long starting pitcher article you would know about how Gausman’s numbers, and his crazy splits with Joseph at catcher, but for those who didn’t read it here are his numbers. Gausman was 11-12 with a 4.68 ERA, .283 baa, 179 strikeouts, and 8.63 K/9 in 186.2 innings. Now if you look at these stats you’ll think ‘wow he is not good at all’, but his stats are skewed to who his catcher was. With Caleb Joseph as his catcher Gausman pitched to a 2.62 ERA, .237 baa, 122 strikeouts over 113.1 innings. He has held the Twins to a .259 average and 2 homeruns over 81 at bats. Joseph is the Orioles catcher this season, and I expect the trend to continue, but I would reserve Gausman for GPP’s just in case.


Low Tier

Dillon Peters ($6,700 FD/ $4,900 DK)-

Dillon Peters was a September call up last season and finished the season with a 1-2 record, 5.17 ERA,  .271 baa, and 7.76 K/9 over 31.1 innings. Now these aren’t great, but when we get into his home splits we see the appeal. In 17.2 innings at home Peters had a 1-1 record, 1.53 ERA, .183 baa, and 9.2 K/9. The Cubs and Marlins have played 35 innings of baseball over the last 3 nights and have shown that at times they can have trouble scoring. Peters is a lefty, and fellow lefty Caleb Smith just held the Cubs to 4 hits and 1 run over 5.1 innings of work while striking out 8 batters. Peters definitely comes with some risk, but on FD I could see him as a low owned GPP play. His price on DK is cheap  enough to completely crush value if he can do close to the same as Caleb Smith did two nights ago.

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