High $: Stenson Mickelson
Tighter pricing this weeks means you could either take shots in the $7k range and go with Rickie/Rose/Spieth, or take a bit more of a savings with Stenson or Phil and have some $ to work with. I prefer the latter approach just because I don’t see much separating the three $11k guys from the two $10k guys this week.
High-Mid $: List Berger RCB Henley
Any of these guys could very well be lifting the trophy Sunday, and all line up well here. List sticks out here statistically every year but his recent form has never been this strong coming in, and he’s found something in his short game recently. I really like him to win here despite this crazy price tag. Berger’s awful showing at Genesis hurts his stat rankings, but he’s been solid overall recently. He’s been great here in three straight years, and he’s a guy who tends to show up at the same spots each year. RCB missed the cut here last year, but was not coming in with such great form. He’s been much more consistent this year and is good enough to compete with the best in the game. As an elite ball-striker, he should do very well here. Henley has been a monster at this course, with a win and three top-10’s, but his form is only decent. That said, I don’t remember Henley coming in too hot in years past, but he still managed those results. I see another great showing here from Henley, and I like him as a sneaky Masters gpp play as well.
Mid $: Howell Stricker An Bradley Sharma
The first four are cash plays for me, while Sharma is a gpp play. CH3, Ol’ Steve, Benny An, and Keegan are all cash plays in this range because they are either great ball strikers or have to win to make the Masters. CH3, Stricker, and Keegan all have very strong showings in Houston in the past and have been in form as well. An has the ball striking capability to hang here and has been posting great finishes at courses like this all year. Sharma is an elite talent with birdie making capability who could pop up with a top 5 or a win here.
Low $: Han Pieters Frittelli Holmes Vegas O’Hair Hahn Harkins
Han has been very good recently but with no history and not great long-term form, he’s kind of hard to trust for me at this price tag. Pieters and Frittelli are two EURO tour bombers with great upside here. While I wouldn’t be shocked if either did not play well here, both fit this course very well and Frittelli has Texas experience as a former player at UT-Austin. JB Holmes has made four straight cuts with no solid finishes, but those Florida courses aren’t exactly ball-striker paradise. I like Holmes as a bomber here and he’s won here in the past. Vegas played college golf in Texas as well, and tends to do well down here. I’d consider him gpp only given his penchant for bad weeks. O’Hair and Hahn have been very solid of late, but don’t have much to go on in terms of history. O’Hair lines up very well statistically, so even though I don’t totally trust him, I’ll trust the numbers and have some shares. Hahn is more of a ball-striker but I don’t think his upside here is great. Harkins is another young ball-striker with good upside here at low ownership and a low price.