EPL DFS Breakdown – 3/17/2018

Target Forwards

Roberto Firmino (Watford @ Liverpool, $12,000) – As the only good forward on this slate, Firmino’s ownership will be high.  He also finds himself in a plus matchup at home against a Watford side who have allowed the 3rd most goals in the EPL this season.  Firmino is averaging 34.75 FDP in his last 4 games and is in a good position to raise that average on Saturday.  He’s a top cash-game play with GPP upside.

Cenk Tosun (Everton @ Stoke, $9,500) – Tosun is my top GPP pivot off Firmino.  He’s scored in his last 2 games for Everton and has a dream matchup against Stoke who concedes 1.87 goals per game this season.  I am slightly wary of Tosun’s price this weekend, but his form plus a good matchup makes him a viable play this weekend.

Cheap Forwards

Alexander Sorloth (Crystal Palace @ Huddersfield, $7,000) – The pickings are slim as far as decent forward punts go on this slate.  The 22-year-old Norwegian international has yet to score in his first 4 appearances for Palace since joining during the winter transfer window.  However, a matchup against Huddersfield could be just what Sorloth needs to get on the score sheet.  At $7,000 he is one of the better forward punts on this slate along with Christian Benteke ($7,500).  Benteke is very goal-dependent and is strictly a GPP play.

Target Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (Watford @ Liverpool, $13,000) – Salah’s ownership is going to be through the roof on Saturday.  He’s far and away the best player on this slate.  Salah has scored 6 goals in his last 6 EPL games, and is in a prime spot against a poor defensive team in Watford this weekend.  Even at $13,000, Salah is a top play.  Teammate Sadio Mane ($10,000) is a good play as well.  Stacking Firmino, Salah, and Mane is mathematically impossible, and so trying to decide which 2 Liverpool stars you want to roster.  For me, it’s going to come down to specific lineup construction and how I can fit other players I want.  Emre Can ($9,000) has shown big-game upside, but he is essentially off my radar this weekend due to inconsistency and a higher-than-normal price.

Theo Walcott (Everton @ Stoke, $9,500) – For anyone fading Liverpool, Walcott is another top midfield option.  He’s been slightly disappointing lately, but he draws a prime matchup against Stoke in which he is a great bounce-back candidate.  I am not a fan of Wayne Rooney ($9,000) at all this week.

Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace @ Huddersfield, $8,500) – My favorite Crystal Palace player this week is Zaha.  He’s a crucial part of Palace’s attack, and he looked good in his return from injury last week against Chelsea.  A matchup against Huddersfield is a good one for Zaha.  Luka Milivojevic ($7,500) is another nice play in Crystal Palace’s midfield.

Cheap Midfielders

Badou Ndiaye (Everton @ Stoke, $7,000) – My favorite cheap midfielder on this slate is Badou Ndiaye.  Since joining Stoke in January, Ndiaye has played 5 games (3 of which were 20+ FDP performances).  His offensive upside is limited with only 1 assist and 4 chances created in those 5 games, but he does well picking up many of the peripheral defensive stats.  Ndiaye is a nice piece that can be used for salary relief on this slate.

James McArthur (Crystal Palace @ Huddersfield, $6,000) – Crystal Palace’s starting lineup will be one to watch come Saturday.  Other midfielders, Yohan Cabaye ($7,000) and Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($6,000), have both been deemed fit for this game, but it is unclear whether or not they will regain their starting spots.  McArthur has been playing well in Cabaye’s absence and is averaging a decent 13.7 FDP over his last 5.  For 6k, you cannot expect a whole lot more than that.  If you need major salary relief, McArthur is a fair option.

Target Defenders

Nathan Ake (West Bromwich Albion @ Bournemouth, $6,500) – Ake is the first player from this game that I am mentioning.  He’s been one of the better defenders in the EPL this season as far as fantasy performances go.  Ake is 8th in the premier league in clearances, and West Brom allows defenders to rack up a lot of clearances.  Provided that Ake adds some interceptions and tackles as well, he is in a good spot for a near-ceiling game.

Ahmed Hegazi (West Bromwich Albion @ Bournemouth, $6,500) – Hegazi has been one of the safest defenders on FanDuel all season, and he will be exactly that on Saturday.  Over his last 5 games, he is averaging 19.7 FDP which is better than his season average.  Hegazi should have a good game against Bournemouth who have struggled attacking this season.  He’s a defender with a high floor, but his ceiling is not as high as you would like for $6,500.

James Tompkins (Crystal Palace @ Huddersfield, $6,500) – Tompkins is averaging 22.0 FDP in his last 7 EPL games, which is what you’re looking for from your average defender.  A matchup with Huddersfield should be a fruitful one for Tompkins, as well as CP in general.

Leighton Baines (Everton @ Stoke, $6,000) – Baines finally made his return from injury after missing a little over 3 months, and it did not take long for him to make an impact.  He created 2 chances and added an assist on his way to a 21 FDP performance against Brighton.  Baines is one of the more experienced offensive-minded defenders in the EPL, and should feast against a team like Stoke.

Cheap Defenders

Adrian Mariappa (Watford @ Liverpool, $5,500) – Over his last 5 EPL games, Mariappa is averaging 16.6 FDP.  I am expecting him to eclipse that average this weekend in what should be an open and free-flowing game against Liverpool.  Sebastian Prodl ($5,500) is in play as well.

Florent Hadergjonaj (Crystal Palace @ Huddersfield, $5,500) – Last week, Hadergjonaj had 21 crosses versus Swansea City.  While crosses is not a category on FanDuel, they do often lead to chances created which is a point-scoring category.  It is unlikely Hadergjonaj get nearly that many crosses again, but he still gets about 5 crosses per game making him valuable as a cheap defender.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Crystal Palace @ Huddersfield, $5,500) – Wan-Bissaka continues his bright start for Palace.  In his 3 starts, he’s averaged 22.8 FDP.  He stuffs the stat sheet with peripherals, and have displayed a high floor for fantasy purposes.

Goalkeepers

Jack Butland (Everton @ Stoke, $5,500) – Normally Butland can be a roster liability with Stoke’s horrendous goals against record this season.  Butland has the biggest upside on the slate in my eyes.  Stoke’s defense is bad enough where Everton should be able to force Butland to make saves, but Everton’s 0.67 goals scored per game on the road this season means Butland has a shot at the clean sheet bonus as well.

Also like: Wayne Hennessey ($4,500), Asmir Begovic ($5,000)

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