PGA DFS Breakdown – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Hey guys! I’m back for another week of PGA DFS, and hopefully a tournament without any post-lock withdrawals from my cash lineup! Kevin Na really hurt me last week, but I can’t look back and say he was a bad play. I had the winner, Paul Casey, and two other plays – Dufner and Streelman – that made a lot of sense. Leaving that behind us, there’s a lot to digest this week. Let’s dive in…
High $: Day Rose Tiger
Jason Day has taken some time off to deal with his back injury, which didn’t seem to hamper him much at Pebble or Torrey. My concern with Day stems from his layoff and his pairing with Tiger. We know how playing with Tiger negatively impacts Snedeker, and probably many others, but I’m not sure how Day will deal with it. He’s a great player, but a whiner. He’s not a cash play by any means, but a win here would not shock me. Rose played better at Valspar than in Mexico, which is nice to see. His record here, combined with not playing with Tiger, leads me to like him more than Day this week. Both will be low owned due to a certain guy at 10k…
Tiger gets his own paragraph. He’s the favorite this week, but I don’t think the odds are necessarily indicative of his chance to win. That said, he’s been arguably more solid than anyone in the top range besides Day since his return, and the stats show it. His accuracy is trending up, and all he needs to do is put it all together. A win before Augusta would be huge for him and take a lot of pressure off. I like him in all formats, and he will be the chalk.
High-Mid $: Fleetwood Noren Hatton
Fleetwood might be my favorite play of the week. His price is too cheap and he’s on fire. Not only does he line up in history/form well, but he’s also leading the Tour in BoB% from over 200 yards, a stat which should come into play this week. Noren falls right in line with Fleetwood. The price is too cheap, and he’s been stellar since coming over. Last year he finished 49th here, but finished rather poorly in Mexico the week before. This year he’s been in the US for a while, got some more Bermuda experience, and played much better in Mexico. I expect that to continue this week. Hatton is interesting – he did not do well at Honda, but nearly forced a playoff in Mexico. Here, he finished 4th last year and after that showing in Mexico, I like him a lot here.
Mid $: Scott Bubba Harman Snedeker Oosthuizen
Adam Scott has turned around his short game, but his putting is still lacking. The results show this – he’s trending up, but has historically been a bad putter, making it difficult for him to win tournaments. He should do well here, but unless he putts well, I doubt he really competes for the win. I like him in GPPs. The same goes for Bubba, who has been solid lately and has a decent record here. Harman rode a hot putter in Mexico, and has a mixed bag of results here, leaning me to want to play him in GPPs but likely not in cash. I’ll be fading the defending champion, Leishman, who has been pedestrian this year. I like Snedeker and Oosthuizen as solid plays with some upside – both have been strong this year and have good history here. I’ll ignore Snedeker’s weekend debacle at Valspar – that’s the Tiger effect.
Mid $ GPP: List Lovemark Kokrak
I discuss these three in the video at some length. I like each, but rank Kokrak and List above Lovemark. Kokrak has been very solid this season and fits this course quite well. He has some solid results here, and has been trending up. The same goes for List, who has finished no worse than 26th in his last 5 tournaments and posted a strong 17th here last year. Lovemark too has been good lately, and has some solid results to show at this course. Each is overpriced relative to their long term form, which will lead people to avoid them in favor of bigger, more consistent names. I will ride the form of each while it lasts. Release the Kokrak!
Mid-Low $: Aphibarnrat Smith ZJ Grillo Hahn Laird
The BarnRat has finished 6th here twice and hasn’t missed a cut in quite some time. Despite traveling all the way from Asia back to Florida, I like him to do well this week. Due to the travel concerns, I can’t in good conscience play him in cash. The same goes for Grillo, who has played very well at this event and recently, but had a bit of a meltdown in India last week and must travel as well. Cam Smith has been on a roll this season, and I see little reason for his all-around strong play to stop this week. He ranks in the top 23 in each stat I looked at this week, and is in play for me in all formats. Zach Johnson at Bay Hill since ’06: 11/12 cuts, 4x 11th or better. ZJ this season: 7/7 cuts. He’s a cash staple for me. Hahn and Laird are interesting GPP plays. Hahn has ben a spreadsheet/model darling with his strong play this season, but a few weeks off and coming to Florida may derail him. His west coast history has been strong historically, but I don’t recall him having been great in Florida. This shows in his history/form. Laird has a win here and hasn’t missed a cut at this event, but he’s been very up/down lately with two 9th place finishes sandwiched between three missed cuts. He’s a solid GPP play just due to the history and recent upside.
Low $: Fitzpatrick Molinari Chappell Burns Na SI WOO
Fitz is a guy I love playing in EURO DFS, but he’s yet to really come around in the US. He’s played well here in the past, so I’m willing to take a shot in GPPs. His strong all-around game should suit him well here. Molinari and Chappell are the chalk this week, and for good reason. Chappell has been very strong, stringing together a bunch of 30th or better finishes, and despite his up and down history here, he’s had those results at a lot of courses this season, keeping his price low. I’ll keep playing him in all formats until his price goes up by around $1000. Molinari has great history here, in fact, some of the best in the field – three top 10’s, five made cuts. This is likely due to things the stats won’t necessarily show. He’s a great long iron player, and he’s a strong Bermuda putter. I don’t believe he’s played an event on Bermuda this season, so I’m not surprised his putting has looked lackluster. He also hasn’t had awful results despite the putting struggles. Fire him up with confidence.
If you wanna ride the hot putter, take a shot on Sam Burns. He’s shown up out of virtually nowhere to compete at Honda and Valspar, two very difficult events. I like his chances this week, and will have a good bit of him in GPPs as a pivot of Chap/Moli. Kevin Na killed me last week, but he’s been on good and has great history here. If you don’t mind potentially burning money if he WDs, take the shot. At least this week we KNOW the risk. I’ll be fading Hoffman and Kisner for the most part. Both haven’t done much to inspire confidence this year, but played well here last year. I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with them. Si Woo Kim pops in some stats I looked at such as long-iron approach, which could be what he needs to get a better result than the mediocre ones he’s posted recently.
Good luck! API