After a great week of EURO, we look ahead to the Valspar Championship and Hero Indian Open and hope to keep the momentum going. If watching the video, I recommend skipping ahead to the EURO stuff first, since that tournament locks tonight rather than tomorrow morning. I’ll give a short breakdown of my favorite plays in each tournament:
***Link to spreadsheet is at bottom before video***
Top $: Sharma Lahiri Grillo Chawrasia
Sharma is India’s young star, but coming back from Mexico, being THE center of attention, and just receiving his Masters invitation may have him a bit overwhelmed. I’m not too worried though, since this is his home course and he’s clearly playing at a different level than his 40th place finish last year. Lahiri always contends in these Indian events, and I expect no different this week. Nice discount from Sharma. Grillo played well at Honda and I expect him to continue that here. He plays a straightforward, conservative game that I think will translate to success at this treacherous track. Chawrasia comes in in poor form but I consider that irrelevant for him – he shows up in India. The story was the same for him last year and he won easily. If he does the same this year, you’ll need him on your lineup to have a shot.
Mid $: Jamieson Gallacher Vincent Green
Jamieson was a core play for me last week, and he came through. Combine that with a 3rd place finish here last year and I like him a lot. Gallacher has the game to keep the big numbers off his card, and seems safe to me. The same goes for Vincent, who hasn’t taken a week off in 2 months, but also has been racking up solid finishes and had one here last year. Green isn’t a guy I’m too high on, but he did finish runner-up here last year. Something about this course played to his strengths, so it’s worth chasing.
Low $: Meesawat Ormsby Bhullar Havret Saksansin Da Silva Manassero Molinari
Meesawat finished well here last year and comes in off an Asian Tour victory, so I like him a lot at 7900. Ormsby was a ball striking king last week in Mexico but couldn’t do anything around the green or putting. Tee-to-green should lead to success for him here. Havret and Da Silva are solid plays, with the latter being my favorite of the week. Da Silva hits fairways and doesn’t get in trouble. That’s what it takes to succeed here, and he’s coming off two top 13 finishes. Havret finished 4th in Qatar two weeks ago and played well here last year. The two Italians, Manassero and Molinari (Edoardo, not Francesco), each contended last year at this course and play the same kind of game as Da Silva. I like Saksansin quite a lot as well, with his good finish here last year and solid recent form.
Super Low Owned Gut Play: Shamim Khan – coming in hot from the Professional Golf Tour of India, Khan has three top 5’s in his last four tournaments and finished 43rd here last year. I think he calls this course home (I know he’s from Delhi), and I expect nobody will play him.
Top $: Spieth Sergio Stenson
Spieth is very safe here, but you’re paying all the way up. I’d rather save some $ in cash formats and go with Sergio, who is on another level ball-striking right now, or go with Stenson, whose history here reflects how well this course fits his game. I like the savings of Stenson, personally, but I can’t argue with Sergio either. Rory is a fade for me until he gets going.
High-Mid $: Casey Moore Finau
Paul Casey seems to be a very safe play, but you’re still paying up for him. Finau has been a boom/bust guy so far this year, and at this event in the past, so I’ll reserve him for a few GPP shares. Ryan Moore hasn’t played much yet this year but did play well at Genesis and fits the course well so I’ll have some shares of him as well.
Mid $: Hadwin An Kuchar Oosthuizen Na Smith
Defending champ Hadwin fits this course well and comes in with some stellar form. I really like him to compete again this week. Byeong-Hun An is a pure ball striker who’s been putting well recently. That’s a dangerous combination and I like him a lot in the mid-tier, where Hadwin and other names around him may soak up more ownership. Some are saying Matt Kuchar is done, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I won’t let two mediocre weeks at Pebble and Mexico scare me off his elite consistency and upside at this track, which fits him so well. Oosthuizen is another solid option here, though I think more for a GPP based on his combination of high finishes and poor results here in the past. Kevin Na and Cam Smith come in at the same price and I expect them to be around the same % owned. I like both equally, and will have shares of each. I think I’d prefer Cam in cash games since Kevin Na seems to always miss the cut when I invest heavily in him, but both are solid plays in all formats.
Mid-Low $: Dufner Streelman Stricker Schwartzel CH3 Hadley
Dufner in cash. Lock it in. Streelman in cash. Lock it in. Stricker and Schwartzel interest me a lot. Stricker is coming off of a 2nd and win in Champions Tour events, so he’s playing well enough. This course also fits him very well and he’s had great success here in the past. Schwartzel also has had success here the past two years, with a win and a 6th place finish, but he’s not been playing very well recently. He’s making cuts but not reaching leaderboards. When I type it out, I like Stricker more on paper, but Schwartzel keeps grabbing me with that history. Charles Howell III didn’t do well at Honda and I didn’t expect him to. That course hasn’t been a “CH3” course throughout his career, but this one has. He’s been very solid here, and even at Honda only really imploded due to losing something like 7 strokes on the greens in two rounds (pretty impressive). I doubt that happens again this week and I like him in all formats. Hadley disappointed massively at Honda but I think he’s worth going back to in GPPs.
LOW $ GPP SPECIALS: Lovemark Glover Huh Bozzelli Burns Watney
Jamie Lovemark isn’t a guy I play often, but he makes sense here. He played well at Honda, is trending up, and has good results here in the past. The same goes for John Huh, who will hit fairways and keep trouble away. I like both a lot. Lucas Glover in Florida is a thing, and I like him this week after he played well at Honda. People don’t play Glover, so it’s worth a shot given the upside he’s shown at this event. Bozzelli lines up really well here from things I’ve seen, and is definitely worth some shares at only 7100. Sam Burns is a young player who showed up big at Honda, which for such a tough test, is very impressive. I’ll take some shares this week. Nick Watney at 7000 is interesting due to his stand-out combination of cut-making at this course and in recent weeks. I’ll take what I consider to be a very probable made cut for only 7000. Valspar Hero Indian