We’re back this week with two very interesting tournaments – one with no cut and another with a field of guys whose names you’ve probably never heard of. Fear not, because I’ve got you covered. I’ll jump right into the breakdown.
WGC-Mexico: Cash games this week aren’t my thing due to the no-cut format. You can take all the risk you want on upside plays and hope they hit in gpp. While you can start your lineups with DJ or JT, the pricing is sharp enough where there a whole bunch of potential winners in the 8k ranger who you miss out on when doing that. If going with DJ or JT, I like focusing on the mid-high 7k range to round out your lineup. If going with Rahm or Fleetwood, I like going with a mix of the 8k and 7k picks to round out lineups. I also don’t mind starting Phil-Sergio due to both showing strong here last year and Sergio being underpriced.
Top Plays in Order of Preference and Convenience for Lineups
10k: Fleetwood Rahm DJ JT
9k: Phil Sergio
8k: Casey Fisher Pieters Finau Frittelli Noren Chappell
7k: Kuchar Schauffele RCB Fitzpatrick Woodland Grace Leishman Luiten Perez Webb Dufner
Punts: Campillo (strong form); Vegas (only tour-proven player down here)
TSHWANE OPEN: I like starting lineups with Coetzee or Bjork. These guys have the best form/history combination at the top and are easily my favorites to win. I lean Coetzee due to how close they are in price, but he will be higher owned than Bjork. I feel Norris and Sterne are super safe, and it’s interesting Sterne has the better results here, while Norris has the better upside recently. Kinhult and Van Rooyen have upside but could burn you too. Blaauw and Rai are solid GPP plays in the low 9k range. The 8k range doesn’t really interest me until the bottom – Winther has been hot/cold here and this season, while Karmis and McClatchie stick out as in-form Sunshine Tour players. Karmis has two top 10’s at this tournament in the past, and is coming off three top-20 finishes on the Sunshine Tour. The 7k range is loaded up with value. I think Otto is a solid option with great history here, while Langasque is a young talent worth playing. Walters and Fisher are my two favorite values, as both have a nice record here and are in solid form. Kieffer and Jamieson come next, priced a bit too low, making solid cash or gpp options. While Lombard has generated buzz, his form has been woeful – you’re playing him solely based on history, and I prefer Fisher. As far as lower owned options go, I think Enoch, Bezuidenhout, Harding, Pavan, Tree, Ritchie, Da Silva, De Jager, Michael, and Coetsee are all worth a look. Enoch won on the Sunshine Tour last week, while Harding, Coetsee, Tree, and Ritchie all showed up with very strong performances. De Jager has some solid results here while Da Silva does as well. Michael has played well the past 3 years here and comes in with decent form.