PGA DFS – Honda Classic
Hey guys, while I wait for the video to upload, I figured I’d write a little article to preview my picks and breakdown for this weekend. I’ve broken it up into cash plays based on site and GPPHonda Classic plays.
Rickie Fowler (FD): Some underpricings on FD, particularly Hadley, Kaymer, Knox, Saunders, Kizzire, and Henley allow Fowler or Sergio to easily be fit into a very solid lineup. While saving the $1200 to go to Sergio on DK makes a big difference in how comfortable I am with my lineup, on FD I don’t feel the $400 savings is justified. Rickie is the defending champ here and sets up perfectly since he dominates Par 4’s and his putting can separate him from the pack.
Sergio Garcia (all sites): Sergio is an elite ball-striker and can deal with the wind that will surely be in play this week. He’s underpriced given his pedigree and general safety, which makes him a good spend-up option for cash games. We still have some underpriced players in the 7k range, so I don’t feel like I need to go balanced in cash yet.
Russell Knox (FD): While Knox is overpriced on DK, he is undepriced on Fanduel this week, and I want him in my lineups. He’s not a big hitter, but this is a shorter track and he has shown success here in the past. Last year was a down year for him overall, but he’s found form this year and I think he continues that this week.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK/FDraft): RCB is overpriced on FD but a great mid-range option on other sites. He’s notched two 26th place finishes since coming over to the US this year, and was extremely solid on the EURO Tour before that. He’s an elite ball-striker and while the putter sometimes lets him down, he can avoid trouble on this course and post a solid result once again.
Martin Kaymer (all sites): Kaymer played well outside of one round last week, and now moves to a course where he’s had success in the past. The quintessential grinder, he’s made 89% of cuts over the last 3 years, and while he rarely posts top 5 finishes, he’s a solid option. Not a birdie machine, but that’s not what you’re looking for at a course as difficult as this one.
Chesson Hadley (all sites): While I think some will go to Adam Scott at 7700 on DK, I will be avoiding him. Scott had similarly elite course history last week and posted a poor finish despite making the cut. His on/around the green game is awful right now. Hadley has turned a corner in his career this season, posting solid result after solid result, and now we see him at a track he has two top 25 finishes in three tries. Fire him up this week and look for another good result.
Patton Kizzire (all sites): Another pivot off the course horses, I like Kizzire a bit more than Graeme McDowell from a cash-game perspective this week. GMac had been awful before showing up strong last week at a course that doesn’t seem to fit him at all, so that may be a sign of form coming. That said, Kizzire has been superb all year and has a 3/3 made cut record here with two top 30 finishes. Some say this course correlates well with Wailaea, where Kizzire won the Sony Open earlier this season – that’s always nice to see. While GMac has the long history here, he also struggled at Pebble Beach where he won a major in the past. I’ll have some GMac in GPPs, but I think Kizzire is the safer play here.
Sam Saunders (all sites): If you told me a month ago I’d be considering Saunders as a cash play, I’d have looked at you sideways. Yet, here we are. At only 7100 on DK and 8400 on FD, Saunders has posted a 14th and 17th here in two tries, while posting four finishes of 26th or better in his last four tournaments. He’s been accurate off the tee, and shown a great short game, which should help him immensely here, where the rough is very penal. I like him to keep his hot streak going this week at a bargain price.
Justin Thomas: With a 3rd place finish sandwiched by two MCs here, JT is hard to trust in a cash lineup. That said, he’s been in stellar form and if he is playing well this week, he can certainly contend for the win at lower ownership than Rickie and Sergio. Rory will be the lowest owned of the four studs, but JT has been in better form.
Ty Hatton + Tommy Fleetwood: Both young Brits are in play at similar prices this weekend, and I like both a lot. Hatton played great here last year and has been on fire on the EURO Tour lately. My only pause with him is he pulled out of an event with a wrist injury, but luckily it was not mid-tournament. Maybe he was just making an excuse to avoid having to travel to Australia for a gimmicky event. His price on DK makes him GPP-only for me, but on FD he’s a cash play. Fleetwood is an elite ball-striker who certainly is used to playing in windy conditions, having grown up playing in British wind (so did Hatton). My only worry here is how much/little experience he has with Bermuda grass, which is what Hatton complained about last year. I figure if Hatton hasn’t played on it much, Tommy likely hasn’t either, but clearly Hatton did well anyway. I like Tommy but he’s a tournament play for me this weekend given pricing.
Ollie Schniederjans: After burning everyone last week AND getting a price bump, people won’t go back to Ollie this week. He’s also priced between RCB/Kaymer and Dufner (who I like in cash as well), so he’ll be overlooked. Ollie is a stellar Bermuda putter and his low ball flight should be a big help if the winds pick up. It’s not like he’s woefully out of form, with two top 10’s in his last four, along with two MCs. If he’s on this week, you’ll want some Ollie exposure.
Russell Henley: While he’s been up and down so far this year, Henley has a win here in the past and has never really been a standout on the west coast swing. After playing well at Pebble, I like him to keep it up here this week. I like Hadley more at this price, but Henley has the tools to do well here.
Dylan Frittelli: This play has all the potential for a blow-up, given that it’s his first US appearance in quite some time, but Frittelli has been on fire on the EURO Tour. He’s usually priced at over 9k in those events, giving you an idea of the player he has been lately. While he played college golf at Texas, I don’t know how much Bermuda experience he has. Pure GPP play for me based on his talent and recent performances. As we saw with Suri and Uihlein though, sometimes that doesn’t translate to these PGA tour events.
John Huh: Huh? Not a guy I’d usually target, but this week I’m on him. He’s got three solid results here with two MCs, but is coming in with four made cuts in a row and a third place finish in there. The stats line up well, with his ball-striking, par 4 scoring and par 5 scoring all standing out at this value price. I like him as a FantasyDraft punt since the lowest score in your lineup is canceled out, meaning if he busts, it probably doesn’t kill you. If you need the savings from Saunders, or want to pair them to really free up salary, I like the play a lot.
Others in consideration: Noren Scott An GMac Stallings Aphibarnrat Palmer Poulter Horschel Lahiri List Donald O’Hair Bryan CinkHonda Classic