Hey everybody I hope you are all as excited for this Super Bowl as I am. E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!
There now that I got that out of my system lets get down to business. Pitchers and Catchers report to spring training in about 26 days and that means MLB is just around the corner. I had some success in MLB DFS last season and I wanted to take the time to write out my process.
(Wow another Philly reference, I promise I’m not doing this on purpose) Anyway here is my process:
First thing I do is look at BvP. For those who aren’t baseball Savvy BvP is Batter vs Pitcher. Many people do not believe in BvP as a viable tool, but it’s always worked for me. There are many different places to find BvP, but when you search on google baseball BvP it should be baseballdata .com or something like that that comes up. That is site most people use.
The second thing I do is build my line using BvP and left/righty splits which I get from the MLB.com At bat app. So then I build my line based on the splits and BvP.
The third thing I do, is consider what narratives there are or who crushes where. An example of this is players like Marcel Ozuna and Ryan Braun who crush in Philly for their whole career. An example of the narratives are like when Chad Bettis returned to the mound from fighting his battle with cancer. In baseball the players are creatures of habit and narratives or hitting well in different parks are important to them, which is why BvP is important to me.
Once the lineups come out I make sure all my players are starting, and I check to make sure they are in their normal spot in the batting order. I follow baseball, so I usually can spot when someone is not in their normal spot in the batting order.
As I said above baseball players are creatures of habit so batting somewhere else in the batting order could hurt their production. An example of this is Jose Iglesias on the Tigers. Most people do not roster him because he bats last in the order. However, Iglesias is a .300 hitter out of the 9 hole and his average goes down to about .270 batting lead off.
Another example is Whit Merrifield. Merrifield was one of the players who flew under the radar last season, he was batting 6th in the order and had a 20+ game hit streak. The next day the Royals Manager decided to move Whit to the lead off spot. He became the chalk that day and everyone in DFS new about his hit streak… Whit ended up going 0-4 that day and his hit streak ended. He ended finishing with a better batting average batting lead off as the season went on, but that night I did not roster him because of the change in the lineup.
I usually keep up on the MLB weather all throughout the day, but it is most important about an hour before lock. We all know weather changes drastically from hour to hour so it is most important now.
A good example of weather you need that isn’t wind or rain is if the Nationals play in the heat. Now this shouldn’t matter but Stephen Strasburg STRUGGLES in the heat and usually can not make it through more than 5 innings.