EPL DFS Breakdown – 1/20/2018

Target Forwards

Sergio Aguero (Newcastle United @ Manchester City, $12,000) – Manchester City suffered their first defeat of the EPL season last Sunday in a goal-filled 4-3 loss at Liverpool.  They’ve had a full week off, and they should come out ready to get back on another streak this Saturday as they take on Newcastle at home.  Aguero sputtered a little bit over the busy schedule during the holiday season with some tough games.  However, with a full 6 days since his last game, Aguero should return to form this weekend.  He has a great matchup this weekend against a Newcastle team that gives up 1.55 goals per game on the road.  I’m expecting a big bounce-back game from City, and Aguero is always in a position to score on this team.

Marko Arnautovic (Bournemouth @ West Ham United, $10,000) – In his last 7 games, Marko Arnautovic has 6 goals, 3 assists, and 13 chances created.  Move over, Harry Kane.  Arnautovic is averaging 32.2 fantasy points in that stretch, hence is price finally hitting 5 figures this weekend.  He’ll take on a Bournemouth defense that gives up an average of 1.55 goals per game on the road this season.  Bournemouth also concede the 6th most goals in the league to opposing attackers.  Up to this point in the season, Arnautovic has been an elite FWD2, but with his price this week he might not be able to fit that role.  Don’t be afraid to have him as your FWD1.  He’s hot, and is in a good spot for continuing his success.

Cheap Forwards

Jamie Vardy (Watford @ Leicester City, $9,000) – Vardy seems to only have 2 kinds of fantasy performances this season.  He’s either in the 18-25 fantasy point range, or he sits in single digits.  This week, Vardy should find himself around the 20 fantasy point range.  Only 1 team (Stoke City) have given up more goals than Watford have this season, so Vardy has a good matchup especially given how goal-dependent he’s been this season.

Callum Wilson (Bournemouth @ West Ham United, $8,000) – Wilson has 3 goals in his last 4 EPL games, and is averaging 28.75 fantasy points over that stretch.  Bournemouth have been poor at creating chances on the attack all season, but they face a West Ham defense that struggles to prevent teams from scoring.  Wilson is the best of the cheap options at forward on this slate given his recent form and solid matchup.

Target Midfielders

Manchester City midfielders all warrant attention on this slate, and stacking them seems like a good idea as well.  Like I wrote about for Sergio Aguero, City will be eager to bounce back from their first loss in a big way and they have the perfect situation to do that.  Kevin De Bruyne ($11,500) is my favorite of the City midfielders, with Raheem Sterling ($10,000) right behind.  Leroy Sane ($9,500) had some disappointing games last month, but looked better in his last 2 games.  It’s hard to roster him for that price when David Silva ($9,000) is cheaper.

Riyad Mahrez (Watford @ Leicester City, $10,000) – Mahrez has been Leicester’s best player this season, especially recently.  In his last 10 EPL games, he has 20+ fantasy points in 7 of them including 5 30+ performances.  He’ll face a Watford team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season.  Mahrez’s speed and skill should allow him to run circles around Watford on Saturday.  A Leicester stack with Vardy, Mahrez, and a third midfielder like Marc Albrighton ($6,500) could be sneaky.

Aaron Ramsey (Crystal Palace @ Arsenal, $8,500) – Ramsey is ready to return from injury, and boy do Arsenal need him.  Alexis Sanchez is on his way out, and Mesut Ozil is questionable for Saturday.  If Ozil sits, everything will run through Ramsey for Arsenal.  Even if Ozil plays, Ramsey will be a key component for Arsenal in this game.  Alex Iwobi ($7,000) would start if Ozil cannot play, and has put up some solid fantasy performances for his price in his most recent starts.

Also like: Gylfi Sigurdsson ($9,000), Aaron Mooy ($9,000)

Cheap Midfielders

Jordan Ibe (Bournemouth @ West Ham United, $6,500) – Ibe has been really good in his last 4 EPL starts averaging 27.5 in that time period.  His price still remains low in a plus matchup against West Ham.  These two teams played less than a month ago, and it ended in a 3-3 draw.  I’m expecting another similar game between these two on Saturday.  Before these last four games, Ibe only had 4 fantasy point totals in double digits, but I think he keeps his hot streak going this weekend with another solid game.

Alex Iwobi ($7,000) and Marc Albrighton ($6,500) are other names I would write about here, but I’ve already touched on them above.

Mohamed Diame ($5,500) is an intriguing option at this price.  He’s been pretty consistent this season and getting defensive stats like interception and tackles.  He also adds in a few blocked shots and clearances.  In a game where Newcastle will have to do a ton of defending, Diame could be sneaky.

Also like: Chris Brunt ($7,000)

Target Defenders

Ben Mee (Manchester United @ Burnley, $7,000) – Mee has been one of the best defenders in the league this season.  He’s also been very useful for fantasy purposes.  His price is high again this week, but for good reason.  Mee takes on Manchester United.  United will likely control a lot of the ball in this game, giving Mee the opportunity to get a lot of peripheral stats.  He scored 18.75 fantasy points in his last meeting with Manchester United, and something in that range is likely again on Saturday.

Daryl Janmaat (Watford @ Leicester City, $6,500) – Janmaat is more of a midfielder for Watford than a defender.  He is best in games where he can get up the field more and join the attack.  He should be able to do that against a team like Leicester.  I expect him to fill the stat sheet this weekend with both offensive and defensive stats.

Also like: James Tarkowski ($6,500), Hector Bellerin ($6,500), Nicolas Otamendi ($6,500), Angelo Ogbonna ($6,000)

Cheap Defenders

Michael Keane ($5,500), Steve Cook ($5,500), Chris Smalling ($5,000), Joel Ward ($5,000), Bruno Martins Indi ($4,500)

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford (West Bromwich Albion @ Everton, $5,500) – Pickford faces a WBA team that have only scored 6 goals in 11 total road games this season.  Everton’s defense isn’t very good, but Pickford should still get the clean sheet bonus.

Ederson (Newcastle United @ Manchester City, $5,000) – Ederson is another top bet for a clean sheet bonus on this slate.  City’s defense, especially at home, has been tough to crack.  Newcastle also really struggle to score.  He probably won’t be needed to make many saves, but should get the clean sheet.

Also like: Nick Pope ($5,500), Wayne Hennessey ($5,000)

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