FanDuel NBA GPP Starting 5 – 1/7/18
What’s going on everyone! It’s been a while since I’ve had the chance to write an article and I’ve been itching to get back, especially with how hot the FanCave community has been!
If you’ve been living under a rock, our FanCave premium membership ($25/month) has already led to two GPP takedowns in the last two weeks, grossing roughly $20,000 in profit in those contests!
We have two different packages, both a $5 tier and a $25 tier on our Patreon page. We will also be releasing some news in the coming weeks that will make the $25/month tier arguably the best bang for your buck in the industry – so hop on now!
As for this article, I’m now going to be writing FanDuel NBA GPP Starting 5 articles multiple times per week. I will offer one player at each position who I will look to in a GPP contest. These players carry significantly more risk than your cash game plays and have an extremely high level of variance.
Scared money don’t make money, so let’s get to the plays:
This article will cover the 7:00pm ET Main Slate on FanDuel
PG | Lonzo Ball | $7,800 | vs ATL
Ball has been a GPP-only play for me the entire season, and for good reason. To show you just how extreme his variance can be, let’s flash back to the first week of December, where over a four game stretch, Ball posted 4x, 1.5x, 8x and 3.6x value in consecutive games. Yuck. The draw? The 8x against the 79ers, his 10x against the Bucks (on Nov. 11).
He can fill the stat sheet in a hurry, you just need to be ready to tilt. The Hawks are notoriously bad against opposing point guards (50.8 FDP allowed per game over their last 5) and Dennis Schroder grades out as one of the worst defending PGs in basketball. This game also carries a 217 O/U with a tight 3.5 point spread. This screams ceiling game for Ball, but we all know how risky it can be. Fire away in GPPs.
SG | Terrance Ferguson | $3,600 | @ PHO
I actually expect Ferguson to draw considerably high ownership (it’s a 5-game slate) due to the fact that he’s already been announced the starter.
When a near-minimum priced player has seen an average of 31.5 minutes over his last two games, you play him in all formats. He’s averaged 25.5 FDP over those games (7x value at his current salary) and draws the Phoenix Suns (Vegas Odds TBD) tonight, the most favorable matchup on the board.
The Suns rank 6th worst in the league against shooting guards from a fantasy perspective, giving up an average of 47.5 FDP on the season and 53.0 over their last 5 games.
While Ferguson won’t likely be the first, second, third or even fourth option on offense, he should get ample amount of run in a likely blowout and should crush value with ease.
SF | Brandon Ingram | $7,000 | vs ATL
With both Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma seemingly hitting rookie walls, the load of the offense has fallen on Brandon Ingram’s shoulders. I typically would not pay $7,000 for a player so inconsistent, but that’s what makes him a nice GPP play.
Over the last two weeks, Ingram sports a 24.3% usage rate and has seen the second most minutes on the team behind only Kyle Kuzma (who is trending down). He is fresh off of a 22/14/4 stat line for 41.8 FDP against the Hornets and draws a nicer matchup tonight against the Hawks, who rank 4th worst in the NBA against SFs (allowing 44.3 FDP per game on the season).
I expect people to gravitate towards Taurean Prince, Josh Richardson and Harrison Barnes, so differentiate yourself a bit with Brandon Ingram.
PF | Dirk Nowitzki | $5,100 | vs NYK
Even though he sees less than 25 minutes per game, Dirk has churned out at least 5x value in 6 of his last 7 games and scored double-digit points in 11 of his last 12. He’s been ultra-consistent as of late and has averaged 34.3 FDP per game against the Knicks in their last 5 meetings.
The Mavs are also implied for 106.75 points tonight, 4 points higher than their season average and 1 point higher than when the line opened. The odds are trending more and more in the right direction and Dirk provides extremely cheap exposure to the offense.
Pairing him with his counterpart Kristaps Porzingis is my favorite GPP strategy, as the crowd will most certainly gravitate towards LaMarcus Aldridge in a revenge spot without Kawhi Leonard.
C | Enes Kanter | $4,900 | @ DAL
Just weeks ago, Kanter was posting back to back 50-FanDuel point outings. Now? He just scored 32.6 FDP, the first time he’s eclipsed 20 since Christmas. This variance will scare people away in cash, and ultimately depress ownership in GPPs. Perfect.
He gets to take on the Dallas Mavericks, who rank 29th in the NBA in rebounds per game and 21st in the league in opponent rebounds per game (51.7).
The post is the place to exploit this weak defense and the key here for Kanter is the minutes. The last time he registered at least 25 minutes against the Mavs, he posted 28 points and 6 boards. Last game (24 min) was the first time he reached at least 24 minutes since that Christmas day explosion.
If Michael Beasley sits with a sprained ankle, I expect Kanter to be completely unleashed, but regardless, he’s my favorite GPP center on the slate.