NBA DFS Value Plays: 12/27/17
Hopefully you all had a wonderful Christmas spending time with family, giving and receiving great gifts and tilt your face off over your NBA lineups – I know I did. Nothing says Merry Christmas and f*ck you more than a 29 fantasy point outing from “the best player ever”.
Yesterday’s slate was a nice way to ease back into things after the holiday, but today we get a loaded 10-game slate to go full tilt over.
Below are my 5 favorite value plays (one at each position).
*Disclaimer: I am writing this article at 11:30pm ET the night before, more value will open up closer to lock so don’t fixate yourself on these plays – be flexible!
George Hill | FanDuel – $4,900 | DraftKings – $4,500
De’Aaron Fox has already been ruled out for Wednesday night and as I’m writing this, Hill currently has 19.2 FDP through mid-way through the third quarter against the Clippers (4x). He’s on pace to surpass 5x value for the 2nd time in his last 3 games and draws a beautiful matchup against the Cavs on Wednesday.
The Cavs currently give up 40.4 FDP/game to opposing point guards and since Fox went down, Hill has seen no less than 34 minutes in a game. That playing time is not something you come across much at this price point. Hill makes for a great PG2 on both sites in cash games.
Jordan Clarkson | FanDuel – $5,500 | DraftKings – $5,600
As long as either Lonzo Ball is out, or KCP is stuck at home with his ankle monitor, Clarkson will be a lock for me. He’s grossly underpriced and proved it on Christmas by giving us 45.7 FDP priced at $4,000 (just over 11x).
With Ball out, Clarkson averages over a FP/min (1.03) and carries a 30.1% usage rate. Yes, you read that right. The matchup with Memphis isn’t ideal, but it doesn’t matter given his usage at this salary – it’s highway robbery.
E’Twaun Moore | FanDuel – $4,400 | DraftKings – $4,600
Even with Moore seeing less than 30 mpg over his last 2, they were the first games since November 29th where that happened. He’s been a consistent starter as one of the few Pelican wings all season and draws a picture perfect matchup against the Nets.
I expect DeMarre Carroll to be matched up with Jrue Holiday, leaving Moore with a bit more room to operate. He’s not a sexy play by any means, but his floor here is roughly 20 fantasy points, which puts him a shade under 5x value.
Jayson Tatum | FanDuel – $5,700 | DraftKings – $5,600
Marcus Morris is out and both Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye are doubtful, leaving Tatum as the only competent forward remaining. He’s been stellar this season and has played at least 30 minutes in 6 of his last 7 games.
With Morris and Brown out, Tatum sees his averages jump to 29.95 fantasy points per-36 minutes and a usage rate of 18.7%. The usage is not ideal, but the per-36 min number puts him at an average of 5.2x value. The Hornets have also allowed 44.5 FDP per game to opposing PFs over their last 10 games. He’s one of the most stable PFs on the slate for cash games.
Marcin Gortat | FanDuel – $4,600 | DraftKings – $5,600
I’m never ever close to 100% confident when rostering Gortat because of how inconsistent his minutes are, but he proved on Christmas that he’s a point-per-minute machine. He saw 26 minutes and posted 11 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks and a steal for 35 FDP against Al Horford and the Celtics.
He draws the Atlanta Hawks in this matchup, who rank 29th in the league in rebounds per game, a much easier matchup than his last with the Celtics. I typically prefer paying up at C, but if you insist on saving money, Gortat is a fine play.