NBA First Glance : 12/17
Hey FanCavers! I’m starting a new article series that will be dropping in the mornings to give you guys a little material to work with while just starting your day! If you’re like me and set your lines the night before/ early morning to reserve your contests I think this will be helpful. It’s going to be a first glance at the NBA slate for the day before the injury news starts coming out. I’ve done a lot of value articles in the past, but with my work schedule it’s hard because I don’t get home until after lock and most injury news comes out an hour before lock, creating a lot of value that I don’t get to write about! So check this out and let me know what you think!
Sac @ Tor – The Raptors are favored by 12 points in this game and the O/u is set at 206. Honestly I don’t see this being a close game, the Kings have no direction as a franchise and the Raptors have won 4/5 including a 15 point win against the Kings last week. There are a couple DFS options I like, but I’m being careful because of the large spread. Demar Derozan is a solid option at SG. The volume scorer put up 25p and 9a last week against them and I’m expecting similar results today because Sac has no one capable of guarding him. Kyle Lowry has a good matchup, but I’m liking other options today because he’s been off as of late. The last Raptor I’ll be looking at is Serge Ilbaka. He’s been on a tear as of late and his price has gone up about $1,000 on both sites. Don’t mind him today because Z-Bo isn’t the best defender, just depends on if the game stays close enough for the starters to get enough run. Speaking of Z-Bo he’s the only Kings player I’m even remotely interested in. Since the start of December he’s only had one game below 30 Fdps and that was his last outing. Now I know a lot of people are expecting regression (which I agree with), but let’s just take a moment and appreciate what Randolph has done. In this stretch the 36 year old has had games of 54, 48 and 47 fdps including a near triple-double and a monstrous 35p and 13r game. While I don’t think that’s coming today Randolph is certainly someone to consider. Both Jonas Valciunas and Willie Cayley-Stein are both in the same boat. They are high points per dollar Plays, but don’t get consistent enough minutes to make it worth while.
Orl @ Det – This game has a spread of 11 favoring Det and an O/u of 203. Orl’s star PF Aaron Gordon has already been ruled out for today’s game which opens up the value door for Mario Hezonja. I know a lot of people were burned by him last time out, but honestly his matchup wasn’t very good against Por. They have a lot of good defensive players on the wings. He was successful against Lac because they play no defense, kinda like Det. Hezonja has another good matchup tonight and I expect him to bounce back from his poor performance last game. Elf his a near lock for me on Dk where he’s $1,400 cheaper than FD. This game will be fast paced and his usage should be way up with Gordon and Fournier out. Both Vuce and Drummond are in the same spot with Drummond being more expensive on both sites. He’s coming off back to back 50 fp games and definetly has more potential, but the magic will need Vuce more because they will be limited up front. Your guess is as good as mine, but both are solid options. I’ve seen a lot of people talk about Reggie Jackson, not a fan of him today even against a poor Magic defense. I think there’s better options on the slate. Keep an eye on the Avery Bradley injury situation if out again Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard make good value plays.
Ind @ Bkn – This game is projected much closer than the other ones Ind is favored by 3.5 and an O/u of 217. Victor Oladipo is one of the studs on the slate and rightfully so. He has a great matchup and should crush value. While he’s almost 10k on Fd I think he’s worth it because he rebounds and passes so well along with his scoring. Collison is also in a good spot but he’s been off lately so I’ll be fading. Lance Stephenson is also an interesting option who has been getting big minutes off the bench. For the Nets things are a lot more interesting for me. Dinwiddie has been in play for me since D Russ went down. He’s super consistent and fair priced on both sites. Looking else where on the Nets I find some value in their newly acquired players Okafor and Stauskas. If Okafor gets minutes at nearly min price against the worst team defending Centers count me in. He got 23 mins last game and was able to score 10p and grab 4r. Not bad for a Value center. Nik Stauskas was great in his Bkn debut playing in 28 minutes, scoring 22p and grabbing 7r. If he does anything like that today again he’s going to take down a Gpp for someone.
Cle @ Wsh – Vegas has this as the closest game on the slate favoring Wsh by 2 with an O/u of 215. I’m going to go ahead and state the obvious… play LeBron in all your lines. In the first matchup of these two teams this year he went for 57p, 11r and 8a. Wsh has no one to cover him and it gets even worse if Otto Porter is out, which seems likely. If he is out Kelly Oubre becomes a must play in my book. He’s cheap and played great when starting for Morris earlier in the year, plus the cavs don’t play much defense. John Wall and Bradley Beal are both in great spots today. With no real PG and lack of defensive SG the cavs may struggle defending the Wizards today. Honestly don’t have many other plays from this game, if you’re looking for a cheap forward both Jeff Green and Jae Crowder are cheap punt plays.