EPL DFS Breakdown – 11/29/17
MORE MIDWEEK EPL!! After a successful breakdown of Tuesday’s EPL slate, I’m back with more plays for Wednesday. This slate is a lot better looking than Tuesday’s, and I expect scores to be MUCH higher.
There are a ton of great options all over this slate. All three of the teams that give up the most goals in the league are playing; Everton give up 2.15 goals per game, and Stoke City and West Ham both give up 2.0 goals per game.
Sergio Aguero (Southampton @ Manchester City, $12,000) – There isn’t much to say here. Aguero is on the same level as I wrote about for Harry Kane in my previous article. He is on fire, and he will remain a top-notch play until further notice. Southampton’s defense is decent (giving up 1.15 goals per game), but Aguero is matchup-proof at this point. If you can afford him, get him. WARNING: There were rumors Aguero would get rested over the weekend, but he ended up making the start. If Aguero gets rested Wednesday, Gabriel Jesus ($11,000) would be a recommended play.
Alexis Sanchez (Huddersfield Town @ Arsenal, $11,500) – Sanchez salvaged his last game fantasy-wise by converting a very late penalty kick against Burnley. Burnley’s defense is very good and very underrated, so this does not worry me a ton. Alexis Sanchez is still one of the best strikers in the league, and he is still Arsenal’s main attacker. Therefore, Sanchez will always be a threat to put the ball in the back of the net. Even when he does not score goals, he picks up some points by putting shots on goal and creating chances. Sanchez has a fair matchup this week against Huddersfield Town. Huddersfield give up 1.46 goals per game (about average), but they did play pretty well Sunday against Manchester City. Pairing Sanchez with another top striker might be tough, but he would be a great pivot off of Aguero/Jesus.
Roberto Firmino (Liverpool @ Stoke City, $9,000) – Firmino was a late scratch over the weekend for Liverpool simply just to get rest. Firmino is expected to return to the starting XI on Wednesday. His opponent, Stoke City, have given up 26 goals in 13 games. As the main striker for Liverpool Firmino will always be a threat to score, and with a plus matchup he is a good forward option for 9k.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (West Ham United @ Everton, $6,500) – Calvert-Lewin has been Everton’s “best” forward this season. I emphasize best like that because it doesn’t take much to be the best forward on this team. The best thing about DCL in this game is his matchup. West Ham’s defense allows 2.0 goals per game (2nd most in the league). Over his last 3 games, DCL is averaging 18.08 fantasy points per game which is 6 points higher than his season average. With his price and his great matchup, DCL is one of the better punts at forward on Wednesday. Teammate Wayne Rooney ($7,500) is also an interesting punt assuming he plays. Rooney has been on the bench for the last two games, but he could tear up a defense like West Ham’s if he gets on the field.
Marko Arnautovic (West Ham United @ Everton, $6,000) – I’m not going to beat around the bush with this one. Plain and simple, Arnautovic is not that good. But you know what else isn’t good, Everton’s defense. Just like WHU, Everton give up more than 2.0 goals per game. This is a matchup of terrible defenses, so there will be goals. It is very possible Arnautovic scores one (or more) of those goals, but I prefer going with an attacking midfielder for WHU instead.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool @ Stoke City, $11,500) – Salah leads the EPL in goals scored and plays against a team giving up 2.0 goals per game. Enough said.
Eden Hazard (Swansea City @ Chelsea, $10,500) – After Saturdays game, it is safe to say that Hazard is Chelsea’s best player on the attack. After a slow start while returning from ankle surgery, Hazard now averages 34.9 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games. Hazard’s play-making ability is incredible, especially on the ball. In Chelsea’s system he is free to do what he wants on offense. He will also be free to do what he wants Wednesday versus Swansea (2nd last place team). Midfield compadre Cesc Fabregas ($9,500) has been very good for Chelsea this season, especially lately. Fabregas is averaging 30.45 fantasy points over his last 5 starts, and will be another good play Wednesday.
Manchester City midfielders (Southampton @ Manchester City) – At this point, all Manchester City midfielders are viable plays on any given slate. Kevin De Bruyne ($11,000), David Silva ($10,000), Leroy Sane ($9,500), Raheem Sterling ($9,000), and Fernandinho ($8,500) all have the potential to go off for 40+ fantasy points in any game. De Bruyne and Silva have been the most consistent, hence their higher price. I don’t love any of the 5 midfielders Wednesday, but I won’t argue against anyone playing one or more of them. However, I do think there are other good options at MID on Wednesday.
Sadio Mane (Liverpool @ Stoke City, $8,000) – Like I wrote about for Roberto Firmino, Liverpool attackers have a wonderful matchup against Stoke. Stoke give up 2.0 goals per game, and Liverpool’s good offense gives them the potential for a big game. Mane got rested over the weekend just like Firmino, and they should both be ready to go in a tasty matchup.
Also like: Aaron Ramsey ($9,000), N’golo Kante ($8,000)
Idrissa Gueye (West Ham United @ Everton, $7,500) – Gueye is one of Everton’s better midfielders. He has started all games so far and is averaging 16 fantasy points per game (decent for his price). Like I’ve mentioned above, WHU’s defense is poor (giving up 2.0 goals per game). Gueye is averaging 20.92 fantasy points in his last 3 games, and is in a good spot to build on his recent success.
Adam Lallana (Liverpool @ Stoke City, $7,500) – If FanDuel has its facts straight, and Lallana is going to start, he makes an intriguing play as a mid-price midfielder. Lallana is a very talented attacking midfielder, and Liverpool will be excited to get him back on the field after injury. There isn’t really a better matchup to make a return against as a midfielder. Stoke’s defense is not good, and Lallana could be in for a good game. However, rostering anyone as they return from injury is risky because they might not play the full game and could also reaggravate their injury.
Manuel Lanzini (West Ham United @ Everton, $7,500) – When I mentioned that I would prefer to play an attacking midfielder for WHU over their forward Arnautovic, Lanzini was the name I had in mind. Lanzini is averaging 25.33 fantasy points in his last 3 games, much higher than his 16.3 season average. Everton give up the most goals per game in the league, so WHU and Lanzini are in a good spot. Fellow midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate ($6,000) is another attacking midfielder for WHU who could be worth a punt.
Also like: Xherdan Shaqiri ($7,500), Gylfi Sigurdsson ($7,000), Joe Allen ($6,500), Jonathan Hogg ($6,000)
Just like I said for the Tuesday slate, EPL midweek lineups are often unusual. A lot of little-used players get opportunities to start, making for some DEEP value in DFS.
Christopher Schindler (Huddersfield Town @ Arsenal, $7,000) – Schindler has been really good defensively for Huddersfield Town in their first year in the Premier League. He’s also been an asset fantasy-wise, averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game. For a defender that does not have the freedom to get involved on offense, that is very good. Schindler collects most of his fantasy points from clearances and interceptions, and he will have a ton of opportunities to do just that Wednesday against Arsenal. If you can afford a $7,000 defender, choose Schindler. Schindler’s defensive teammate Zanka ($6,500) is a fair play due to his matchup as well.
Federico Fernandez (Swansea City @ Chelsea, $6,500) – Fernandez, much like Schindler, has a matchup against a good attacking team. This means that there will be a lot of opportunities for him to rack up fantasy points with defensive stats. Chelsea will likely dominate this game possession-wise, and if you can afford a more expensive defender, feel free to use Fernandez.
Kurt Zouma (Liverpool @ Stoke City, $6,500) – Zouma is one of my favorite defenders to pay up for. Earlier in the season he could be rostered for only 5k, and his jump to one of the most expensive defenders tells you about the great season he is having. Zouma is averaging 27.06 fantasy points over his last 4 games, and with a game against an attacking team like Liverpool, Zouma is in a good spot to continue his recent success.
Nacho Monreal (Huddersfield Town @ Arsenal, $6,500) – With some major success from attacking defenders lately (see: Davies, Trippier, Young, etc.), they are becoming hard to ignore. Monreal himself has been no slouch lately averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game this season. He had a 4-game stretch where he averaged 30.44 fantasy points per game earlier, and after cooling down lately, he could return to closer to that higher average Wednesday against Huddersfield.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool @ Stoke City, $6,000) – TAA is in that “attacking defender” category. The 19-year-old has only played 4 games in the EPL this season, but he is expected to get the start on Wednesday ahead of Joseph Gomez. In games that he has started, he is averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game. Against a poor attacking team like Stoke, TAA will have the freedom to join Liverpool’s attackers up the field. I’m not in love with him price this week, but I do think he gets to his average.
Also like: Virgil van Dijk ($6,000), Sead Kolasinac ($6,000), Kyle Naughton ($5,500), Nathan Ake ($5,500), Wesley Hoedt ($5,500), Hector Bellerin ($5,500), Fabian Delph ($5,500)
Ryan Bertrand (Southampton @ Manchester City, $5,000) – I realize that Bertrand went off with 2 assists over the weekend and that won’t happen again, but he’s still a solid defender with a good matchup against Manchester City. Manchester City has also looked *slightly* more vulnerable on defense, and Bertrand has the 8th highest number of crosses among all defenders. I know crosses directly don’t count for points on FD, but crosses lead to points via chances created and assists. Bertrand could see a little bit of an inflated ownership this week because of his game over the weekend, but he still makes for a decent play.
Also like: Phil Jagielka ($5,000), Florent Hadergjonaj ($4,500), Martin Olsson ($4,500)
Value at defender does not look like it will come easy Wednesday. It will be important to check starting lineups tomorrow before lock to find any additional value here.
Nick Pope (Burnley @ Bournemouth, $5,500) – Pope is a good bet for the clean sheet bonus tomorrow. Bournemouth struggle on offense. They only score 0.85 goals per game, and Burnely has one of the best defenses in the league. Saves might be down for Pope tomorrow, but he should get the clean sheet bonus.
Ederson (Southampton @ Manchester City, $5,000) – Ederson has a good matchup this week to get the clean sheet bonus. Southampton have played 5 games on the road, and they’ve only scored 3 goals in those games. Manchester City is expected to dominate this game possession-wise, giving Southampton few opportunities to score. Ederson will rarely see a ton of shots, but he is a good option for the clean sheet bonus Wednesday.
Thibaut Courtois (Swansea City @ Chelsea, $5,000) – The matchup here for Courtois is similar to Ederson’s. He’ll face a Swansea City team that struggles offensively, only scoring 7 goals in 13 games (0.54 per game). Swansea have played 6 games on the road, and they’ve only scored 3 goals (0.50 per game). Chelsea, like Manchester City, should dominate ball possession in this game. Courtois is another good option for the clean sheet bonus.
I am staying away from Jonas Lossl ($5,500), Jordan Pickford ($5,000), Fraser Foster ($5,000), Lee Grant ($4,500), and Joe Hart ($4,500) on this slate.