DFS NFL

NFL Week 12 Value Plays

Week 12 is less than 24 hours away and there are a TON of injury implications that will likely affect your DFS lines this week. That means one thing and one thing only – value galore!

For this week’s NFL Value Plays article, I am going to switch up the format a bit. I am going to create an “all value” team (FanDuel roster with pricing for both sites) to give you ample options at all positions.

Here is week 12’s all-value team:

QB: Matt Ryan (FanDuel: $7,600 / DraftKings: $6,400)

This price tag isn’t that of your typically value play, but from a point-per-dollar standpoint, there may not be a better value on the slate than Matt Ryan. To echo Manick (who wrote Ryan up in our Plays of the Week article), Ryan has started to heat up with 8 TDs over his last 4 games.

Tampa Bay’s secondary is atrocious (second worse pass defense in the league) and with the Falcons implied for 29 points, this is a perfect get-right spot for the 2016 MVP.


RB1: Tevin Coleman (FanDuel: $6,200 / DraftKings: $6,500)

Coleman is going to be chalky, there’s no doubt about that, but for good reason. Devonta Freeman will be riding the pine for the second straight week as he’s struggled to get through the league’s concussion protocol, leaving Coleman as the workhorse.

He wasn’t very efficient last week (20 carries for 43 yards), but he draws an easier matchup this week. The Bucs have allowed 107.2 rushing yards per game and Coleman has played more than 70% of the team’s snaps over the last two weeks. He’s an ideal RB2 to pair with a stud this week.

RB2: Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5,400 / $4,600)

There really aren’t many value RBs below Coleman, but if you’re dead set on punting, Williams isn’t the worst option in the world. The Packers’ offense has struggled to move the ball with Brett Hundley and they clearly don’t trust his arm, so the backfield has been relied upon heavily.

With Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones both out, Williams should be able to replicate his workload over the last two weeks (19 carries per game). He also drew a surprising 6 targets out of the backfield last game, making him a stronger punt on DraftKings. This game is likely already over before kickoff, so while the game-script is negative for Williams, I don’t expect Hundley to throw 40 times, solidifying a fine floor for Williams.


WR1: Kenny Stills (FanDuel: $5,600 / DraftKings: $4,800)

In one half with QB Matt Moore last week, Stills posted 6 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown, compared to 1 catch for 26 yards with Cutler in the other half.

Matt Moore has been named the starter for week 12, solidifying Stills’ spot on the all-value team and while the Patriots’ defense has been improving, they still rank 31st in pass DVOA. Miami is also the heavy underdog, meaning more deep bombs being thrown Stills’ way.

WR2: Cooper Kupp (FanDuel: $5,400 / DraftKings: $5,000)

Possibly my favorite value play of the day, Kupp should see an expanded role this week with Robert Woods sidelined for the Rams.

Typically, I wouldn’t target a WR against the New Orleans secondary this season, but both starting cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley have been ruled out, leaving their secondary vulnerable. Kupp is also averaging 6.1 targets on the season, 2.3 more than the next receiver (Sammy Watkins at 3.8). It’s clear who’s going to have to step up here and for only $5,400, the sure-handed Kupp is a safe play in all formats.

WR3: Martavis Bryant (FanDuel: $5,200 / DraftKings: $4,100)

Coming into this season, many people, myself included, thought Bryant was going to break out. Well, the opposite happened thanks to the emergence of Juju Smith-Schuster. Bryant has been a bit more involved over the last two weeks, reeling in 5 catches for 72 yards on 9 targets and should see an expanded role this week with Juju ruled out.

The Packers defense, much like their offense, is incredibly banged up (18th in pass DVOA) but should get Morgan Burnett back. This gives Antonio Brown a little bit tougher of a matchup, which could lead to an expanded role for Bryant.

I would reserve Martavis for GPPs, but his big play upside makes him the type of player that can win you a nice chunk of change if the stars align.


TE: Charles Clay (FanDuel: $5,300 / DraftKings: $4,100)

I’m gravitating towads a mid-range TE this week, but if you want to save a few dollars, Clay is a fine play.

While he’s been quiet over the last couple of weeks, Tyrod Taylor is back at the helm AND Kelvin Benjamin has been ruled out, leaving Clay as the only reliable pass-catcher this week and the de-facto #1 option in the red zone.

The Chiefs are rather stingy against opposing TEs (5th in DvP), but the Bills may be playing catch-up this week, meaning more and more targets for Clay.


K: Giorgio Tavecchio (FanDuel: $4,500 / DraftKings: N/A)

Don’t spend too much, if any, time worrying about a kicker. If you’re looking for a punt, Tavecchio is kicking at home and the Raiders are implied for 23.5 points against a Denver defense that could stop them in the red zone – leading to more field goals.


DEF: Oakland Raiders (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $3,000)

I recommend spending up a bit for your defense this week (at least CIN or PHI), but Paxton Lynch is starting for the Broncos. While the Raiders have yet to record a single interception this season, Lynch was TERRIBLE in relief of Siemien last season, and the Raiders could be lucky enough to force some turnovers tomorrow. Punt at your own risk.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s