EPL DFS Breakdown – 11/26/17

I know most of you probably don’t realize that EPL exists on Sundays due to NFL….but it does.  Normally, I just share a few notes on my Twitter page (@vdray5) for Sunday slates, but since I have a little extra time this week you all get an article.

Target Forwards

Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City @ Huddersfield Town, $10,500) – After beginning the season red-hot with Sergio Aguero out due to injury, Jesus got sent back to the bench and cooled off.  Tomorrow Sergio Aguero is expected to get the day off after playing in the UCL earlier in the week, giving Jesus the start.  Manchester City take on Huddersfield Town, a Premier League newbie this season, who have given up 17 goals so far, a little above the league average.  They conceded 4 goals to Tottenham and 3 goals to Liverpool, two teams with similar attacking quality as Manchester City.  Huddersfield also give up 4th most shots in the league to opposing forwards.  As I’ve written about before, Manchester City’s attack is one of the best in the world right now, and they should have their way against a Huddersfield team that will be very overwhelmed.  Lock Gabriel Jesus in.

Cheap Forwards

Wayne Rooney (Everton @ Southampton, $7,500) – This is a good price for the once world-class striker.  Rooney’s move back to Everton is definitely not going as he thought it would as Everton is in danger of getting relegated.  Still, Rooney is always a threat to score.  Everton struggles as almost every aspect of the game, but Rooney is their “star” and he will remain the focal point of their attack.  Rooney will likely be higher owned than he should be just because his name is one that people recognize.  Forward teammate Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($7,000) has had two solid games back-to-back, and will be another solid punt at forward this week against Southampton.  Southampton has a very mediocre defense.  They give up 1.17 goals per game.

Manolo Gabbiadini (Everton @ Southampton, $7,000) – The best thing about Gabbiadini this week is his matchup.  Everton’s defense is horrendous.  They surrender 2.0 goals per game.  Gabbiadini has not been impressive this season, but you’re often forced to roster such players on Sunday slates where there are only 2-3 games.

Chris Wood (Arsenal @ Burnley, $6,500) – Right now, Christ Wood will be a game-time call.  There are some rumors he will be rested.  Arsenal, much like Liverpool, is a top-tier team with a poor defense.  They give up 1.25 goals per game.  However, Burnley is not known at all for their attack but they’ve been better recently.  Wood has been really hit or miss this season and only averages 14 fantasy points per game.

Target Midfielders

Manchester City midfielders are all in play this week.  The benefit of paying down for a forward is getting multiple Manchester City midfielders in your lineup.  Kevin De Bruyne ($11,500), David Silva ($11,000), Leroy Sane ($9,500), Raheem Sterling ($9,000), and Fernandinho ($8,500) all have a great matchup (same as I wrote about for Gabriel Jesus above) ahead of them Sunday.  If you can get more than one of them in, go right ahead.

Aaron Ramsey ($9,000) and Mesut Ozil ($9,000) (Arsenal @ Burnley) – Both Ramsey and Ozil have been on quite a run in the EPL in their last 4 games.  Ramsey is averaging 37 fantasy points in his last 4 games, and Ozil is averaging 30 in those same 4 games.  Pivoting off of a Manchester City midfielder and going to Ramsey or Ozil would be nice.  They should be lower owned due to their difficult matchup.  Burnley is a very stout team defensively, only giving up 9 goals this season (3rd least in the league behind both Manchester sides).  This is why I am not recommending Arsenal forwards Alexis Sanchez ($10,500) and Alexandre Lacazette ($8,500).  However, if you were to play one of them, Ramsey and Lacazette have proven to be quite the tandem so far this season.

Cheap Midfielders

Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton @ Southampton, $7,500) – If you choose to pay down for midfielders, take a look at Sigurdsson.  He is Everton’s main creator in the midfield, and he should be a lot of work this week with Niasse (suspended), Schneiderlin (hurt), Barkley (hurt) all likely out tomorrow.  Like I said earlier, Everton is struggling in all aspects of the game, but Sigurdsson has been one of the “brighter” spots.  Idrissa Gueye ($7,500) is also viable.

My value of the week comes in the form of Southampton midfielders.  Like I mentioned above, Everton’s defense is bad and Southampton should have their way tomorrow.  It’s too bad that Oriol Romeu ($8,000) is suspended tomorrow, because he would be my favorite.  Mario Lemina ($7,500) is coming back from an injury as is questionable.  Manager Mauricio Pellegrino said on Friday that Lemina could play if he passes some pre-game fitness tests, but don’t count on it.  Steven Davis and Dusan Tadic are both $7,000, and they’ll both make good plays this week as Southampton’s main midfielders.  Nathan Redmond ($6,500) and Sofiane Boufal ($5,500) are not recommended plays.

Target Defenders

Zanka (Manchester City @ Huddersfield Town, $6,500) – Zanka is Huddersfield’s most important defender in the field and in DFS.  Zanka is all over racking up defensive statistics and he should have many opportunities to do just that this weekend against Manchester City.

Laurent Koscielny (Arsenal @ Burnley, $6,500) – Over the Sunday slates I’ve played, I’ve noticed that it is a lot easier to pay up for defenders just due to the lack of high-end options at other positions.  Laurent Koscielny is Arsenal’s attacking defender.  I think that Arsenal will dominate enough of the possession in this game for Koscielny to get up the field and join the attack.  Nacho Monreal ($6,500) is a similar player on the other side of the field for Arsenal.  Look for both to have the freedom to get involved on offense this weekend.

Kyle Walker (Manchester City @ Huddersfield Town, $6,000) – I don’t often recommend playing Kyle Walker just due to the fact that I want to pay for other Manchester City players.  Kyle Walker is another attacking defender that I like this week.  Manchester City should dominate the possession, allowing Walker to get involved and create chances offensively.

Also like: Christopher Schindler ($6,000), Hector Bellerin ($5,500), Phil Jagielka ($5,000)

Goalkeepers

Nick Pope (Arsenal @ Burnley, $5,500) – The best matchup for goalkeepers in my opinion playing against good attacking teams while playing for good defending teams.  That is the exact matchup Pope has this week.  Arsenal has a good enough offense to create chances even against Burnley’s stellar defense.  This will give Pope the opportunity to make a lot of saves, but he will not be exposed by a poor defense.

Ederson (Manchester City @ Huddersfield Town, $5,000) – Ederson is a solid bet for a clean sheet bonus this week.  Manchester City will likely dominate ball possession in this game, and Huddersfield Town will not have many chances to score.  Huddersfield also do not have the high-quality attackers it will take to score against City.

Petr Cech (Arsenal @ Burnley, $5,000) – Cech is another solid option for a GK in line for a clean sheet bonus.  Burnley struggles offensively, but Arsenal does not have the best defense.  This is another combination that could lead some shots on goal for Burnley, but they might not actually score.

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