NBA Value Plays – 10/31/17
Happy Halloween FanCavers! While I am not able to play NBA DFS this season due to my job with the Bucks, I am still going to start filling in where needed on articles.
The NBA season has been an absolute blast for the FanCave team as our Cheat Sheets have exploded and so have the money our writers and members have been winning – so get on board here: Patreon.com/FanCave.
For this NBA Value Play article, I will be giving my favorite value play at each of the five positions (a value play being under $6,000 on FanDuel).
Tyler Ulis ($4,700)
With Eric Bledsoe virtually off of the Suns’ roster, the point guard reigns have been passed to a committee of Mike James and Tyler Ulis. Many NBA DFSers will remember Ulis’ dominant stretch at the end of the 2016-17 and it looks like he may start another one. Over his last two games, he’s seen an average of 23 minutes while posting 10.5 points, 5 assists, 3 steals and 1 rebound per game with only 1 total turnover and saw his usage rate rise to 19%.
Much like last season, the Nets are brutal against opposing point guards and play at a fast pace, allowing an average of 46.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing PGs. Ulis should have no problem eclipsing 5x value in this game.
Jordan Clarkson ($3,900)
While the Lakers have added a plethora of young pieces that have put a dent in Clarkson’s playing time, $3,900 is just ridiculous. He’s averaging over a FPPM (1.06 FDP per min) and 15.5 points per game in only 19 minutes per game. He’s anchored the second unit of this exciting young team and should see the same amount of usage against the Pistons.
His biggest perk in this game? Coming off of the bench, as odd as it sounds. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will draw the start, as well as Avery Bradley defense, while Clarkson will get to go head to head with the likes of Luke Kennard and Reggie Bullock. Expect him to shatter value, lock and load.
Stanley Johnson ($4,500)
A player that’s averaging 35.3 points per game should never be priced this low. While he’s not the most offensive-minded player, Stanley Johnson has demonstrated impressive consistency from a FDP perspective this season. Since returning from his absence due to back spasms, Johnson has averaged 25.4 FDP (currently 5.65x value.
He gets a beautiful pace-up matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers, who rank 4th in the NBA in pace at 106 possessions per game, compared to Detroit’s 99.3. This equates to more offensive opportunities, but more importantly, more defensive opportunities for the defensive-minded Johnson. More steals and blocks in FanDuels new scoring equals a lot more FanDuel points.
John Henson ($4,800)
Being a Bucks fan, and now employee, Henson can be frustrating, but when the opportunity presents itself, he can be a valuable asset. He has one of those opportunities starting him in the face as we speak.
6th man Greg Monroe has been shut down for two weeks and it looks like Henson will pick up the majority of the slack. In their last game against the Hawks, Henson saw a season-high 27 minutes and posted 12 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals for 39.3 FDP (1.46 FPPM).
The Thunder are no easy task and could be a recipe for foul trouble, but there’s no way Jason Kidd entrusts Thon Maker with a hefty amount of minutes against a team like Oklahoma City. The Thunder do allow 43.7 FDP per game to the center position and given their tendency to attack the hoop, we could see a handful of blocks here as well. Henson is worth a flier at the PF position tonight.
Al Jefferson ($4,400)
Perhaps my favorite value play of the night, Jefferson has been a point-per-minute machine this season. Myles Turner is slated to miss his 7th consecutive game with a concussion and Domantas Sabonis is currently a GTD (at 9:30 PM ET on Thursday evening at the time of writing this), which would leave Jefferson as the lone center.
On the season, he’s averaging 8.2 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, but more importantly, 1.19 FPPM. When he plays, he produces.
The Kings allow the third most FDP per game to opposing centers (50.9) and with little to no opportunity cost at center tonight, there’s no reason to not go with a value play. With Andre Drummond over-priced at $9,200, I strongly recommend saving $4,800 and locking in Jefferson if Sabonis is inactive (honestly a fine play even if he IS active).