Week 4 NFL Picks ATS
It’s that time of the week where I have already analyzed all of the NFL games (maybe 3 times each) and have to set my picks for my weekly pick’em pool. I am in a high money $1700 entry league where winner takes home $1700 a week, with top 3 paying out at the end of the season, so I take this very seriously. This article (or at least the Thursday night pick) will be coming out by every Thursday at 7:30PM EST. The article will be straight to the point and will explain briefly and in layman’s terms my thoughts on why I am choosing each team.
Last week overview: That was my worst week to date. So many games that could have flopped either way. No excuses, back to the grind!
Overall Record: 28-20
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 6-10
Week 4: 1-0
If the spread is “-” that means the away team is getting the points, if it is “+” that means the home team gets the points.
Away Team (Spread) Home Team
Chicago Bears -7.5 Green Bay Packers
Pick was announced on Twitter. Green Bay was an easy pick. Bears win in Pittsburgh was FLUKE!!!!
New Orleans Saints +2.5 Miami Dolphins
The Saints can put up numbers. I think this game is a shootout as the Dolphins defense will not be able to contain Brees and his plethora of targets. He gets Willie Snead back this weekend which only adds to the Dolphins defensive worries. I have the Saints winning by a touchdown.
Pick: Saints -2.5
Tennessee Titans +1.5 Houston Texans
Tennessee has looked good. This game will be close but I think the Titans will be able to easily outproduce the Texans. Lamar Miller has looked bad, Hopkins still not to his old self. The only thing I could see flopping this game is the return of Will Fuller, but I still don’t think that is enough. Titans cover.
Pick: Titans -1.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 Cleveland Browns
Either I’m delusional or there is something seriously wrong with this spread. Yes it’s a divisional matchup, yes the Bengals haven’t looked good, but we are talking about THE BROWNS!!! This team is a disappointment year after year after year. The Bengals have their new OC, AJ Green is back (with Eifert out so only more funneling to a GOAT) and they are now giving Mixon the reigns at RB… I just can’t see the Browns even keeping this within a touchdown or two.
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Detroit Lions -2.5 Minnesota Vikings
On the road after a tough loss for the Lions against the Falcons last week is not a good look for the Lions. The Vikings have a two great receivers in Diggs and Thielen, along with with a star in the making, Dalvin Cook. I don’t think the Lions will stop them on the road and with only a 2.5 point spread, I have to take the Vikings.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
Buffalo Bills -8.5 Atlanta Falcons
The Bills have looked really good on defense so far this year. They have not seen an offensive combo like the Falcons have. Ryan, Freeman, Coleman, and Julio will be able to control this game. I really think Julio comes alive after a sluggish start and will be a #CriminalOwnership candidate. I’ll take the Falcons
Pick: Falcons -8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 Baltimore Ravens
I feel bad for the Ravens. I know for a fact, Big Ben is coming out firing on all cylinders this week. Not even going to Elaborate. I do not like the Ravens as a team, the Steelers are winning this by 14+ points. Easy pick
Pick: Steelers -2.5
LA Rams -8.5 Dallas Cowboys
Zeke is going to FEAST! Rams are surrendering the fourth most rushing yards per game, plus 4.3 YPC. I am going to say Zeke outscores the Rams himself on a big day of 140 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns, and 4 receptions for 45 yards. Rams can’t stop him.
Pick: Cowboys -8.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 New York Jets
Another lower than anticipated spread. For some reason this week Vegas thinks some of the games we will be watching will be closer then they should. Jaguars defense is real, the offense not so much, but that won’t stop Fournette from running all over this Jets mediocre defense. The only player on the Jets I see doing things and a cash game staple for myself due to price on FD, ASJ. Seferian-Jenkins a 24 year old TE (who I feel like has been in this league forever) will have his way with the defense as Bouye and Ramsey will be covering the wideouts. This should leave some space for him, but he won’t be able to piggyback the Jets to cover only a 3.5 point spread.
Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Carolina Panthers -8.5 New England Patriots
We all know the Patriots can put up points. I will pick them every week, regardless the spread. It just doesn’t seem right to pick against the greatest coach/qb duo of all time. THESE ARE THE REAL GOATS!
Pick: Patriots -8.5
Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 LA Chargers
This is a straight pick essentially. Eagles win easily. They have looked good on both sides of the ball. I don’t really have much analysis other then the eye test.
Pick: Eagles straight
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 Arizona Cardinals
This pick is all dependent on if Hyde plays or not. If he is out, I can’t see them covering, if he is in, they WILL cover. He has looked so good this year it is unbelievable. There is nothing crazy about either of these teams. I will take the points.
Pick: 49ers +7.5 (if Hyde plays)
New York Giants -3.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odell is back! Buccaneers defense is not looking good, may not even have all their starters. ODELL WILL EAT!!! They are underdogs and getting points when they will win this game straight up.
Pick: Giants +3.5
Oakland Raiders -2.5 Denver Broncos
This was one of the harder games to pick for me. Oakland is playing consecutive road games, Denver lost last week and didn’t look too good. They are both going to score a lot of points. I am not too sure what is going on with the Oakland backfield. Lynch could easily handle 18-20 a game despite age. Semien throwing to Sanders and Thomas is where I am looking this game and I think they cover.
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Indianapolis Colts -13.5 Seattle Seahawks
This spread is huge, it’s scary. Seattle should destroy the Colts. Wilson to Baldwin, along with the new workhorse back in Carson. I have to take the big favorite as they should be able to out-produce the Colts by a couple TD’s.
Pick: Seahawks -13.5
Washington Redskins -6.5 Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs have looked good, Redskins can put up points but haven’t really played a defense that the Chiefs have this year. I have to stick with the 3-0 team and take them to cover. Kelce is not only catching one ball, Hill has the chance to put up 8 catches 150, and Kareem Hunt is a FUCKING GOD!
Pick: Chiefs -6.5